Report by Global Mining Research
OZL rebuffs BHP's A$25/share cash offer - goal is now to try and extract a higher bid, but with limits as it is not a “must have” for BHP (11% more copper, but not worth the effort from an EBITDA perspective; main appeal is safe jurisdiction with assets near one of BHP’s key mines). OZL’s Carajas projects would likely be sold, but West Musgrave is an interesting potential growth asset. The offer price is equivalent of US$0.26/lb of OZL’s contained copper in resources, which is on the lower side to recent deals. For 2023, GMR estimates the combined copper assets would have a sales revenue of ~US$3.6bn, EBITDA ~US$1.4bn, copper production ~340kt and an AISC ~US$2.20/lb.