Healthcare
Foveal has published a new PCVX / VAX-31 note ahead of the OPUS-1 adult pneumococcal vaccine readout expected later this month. They have gone serotype by serotype across the key comparisons with Merck’s PCV21 and Pfizer’s PCV20, assessing where VAX-31 is most likely to beat or miss management guidance, how material those deviations could be, and the adult IPD burden associated with each serotype. They identified a few areas where they think the likely read-through is not fully reflected in the current market framing, without this being a simple binary upside / downside event.
Healthcare
PFE are attempting to move from their successful, but now outdated Prevnar 13 pneumococcal vaccine to Prevnar 20. However, paediatric data suggests it may be slow to achieving noninferiority to old Prevnar 13, and a lack of superiority on the extra seven varieties that Prevnar 20 is meant to prevent in children. Thus, Dr Amit Roy is concerned that it may struggle to position itself as better than already approved alternative MRK’s, Vaxneuvance. He expects most of the $4bn dollar paediatric pneumococcal vaccine market will go to MRK with only $1bn for PFE. Combined with better data in the $1bn adult market, Amit sees $1.6bn for Prevnar 20 overall.
Bear’s Den Idea Forum
Interesting shift in sentiment at MYST's latest buy-side event as the vast majority of participants felt the market did in fact bottom in June (vs. only a handful 5 weeks ago). The most compelling short ideas presented included:
Pfizer (PFE) - Adverse impact of Inflation Reduction Act not fully appreciated by the Street. TP $33 (30% downside).
Olaplex (OLPX) - Extraordinarily high margins to contract as competition intensifies and growth slows. TP $8 (35% downside).
Rogers Corp (ROG) - Expensive acquisition by DuPont in doubt as China regulatory approval delays persist. TP $170 (35% downside).
Sprout Social (SPT) - Low quality Software Co. trades at absurd valuation despite declining net adds / higher churn. TP $43 (35% downside).
