Technology

Report by Daniel Insights

Peter Daniel hosted Gridwise CEO & Founder Ryan Green to discuss the scale and evolution of the US gig economy. Gridwise analyses more than 700m trips from 1.5m workers across platforms including Uber, Lyft, DoorDash and Instacart, providing insight into driver supply, pricing, pay and unit economics. The US is the most mature gig market, with independent workers contributing $1.3trn annually. Around 73-76m Americans, or 36% of the workforce, participate in freelance or gig work, with that share projected to exceed 50% by 2027. Rideshare and delivery alone account for more than 8m drivers, while the market is highly saturated with low median net margins. Gig work remains largely supplemental: only 21% rely on it as their primary income source. A recording of the call is available on request.

Report by MYST Advisors

MYST’s latest buyside event showcased companies launching new initiatives/products, business inflections/turnarounds and companies with higher-end offerings. Also notable were numerous potential consolidation/M&A candidates. The most compelling ideas included:

DoorDash (DASH) - DashPass “loyalty moat” driving durable share gains + several “call options”. TP $275 (30% upside).
Warby Parker (WRBY) - Eyewear rebounding from cyclical trough + game changing AI glasses launch. TP $60 (130% upside).
D’Alba Global (483650 KS) - Ulta + Costco distribution wins signal K-beauty share gain acceleration. TP ₩415K (70% upside).
Vita Coco (COCO) - Rising competition threatens coconut water fad. TP $42 (35% downside).
Hermes (RMS FP) - Perma-short forced to confront prolonged deceleration or painful supply cuts. TP €1,250 (20% downside).

Communications

Report by Badger Consultants

Having successfully shorted DASH several times in 2022, Tom Chanos turns bearish once again. The stock has gained more than 200% off the low price of $43 in Oct 2022 and is up 125% in the past year. However, with short interest now less than 4%, Tom says there are no shorts left to squeeze, just as the business begins to slow dramatically. He argues Wall Street estimates are far too bullish and by the time DASH reaches breakeven it will have pedestrian top line growth at best. No one pays 100x EPS for single digit growth. A 40x multiple would be very generous which would put the stock at $45.

Communications

Report by Behind the Numbers

DASH reported 3Q23 results that beat consensus but much of this outperformance can be attributed to low-balling forecasts. Furthermore, BTN questions how much of the gain can be sustained given the size of the cuts to key expenses. Adjusted EBITDA was $74m ahead of the high end of guidance, but to get there the company added back an additional $30m in litigation costs, had a sudden $50m drop in G&A costs, a large decrease in advertising, and it appears that employee pay increases have stalled and R&D is flat-to-down. These boosts to EBITDA filter down to earnings. In addition, earnings benefitted from interest income rising by $31m.

Communications

Report by Hedgeye

Clear case to be made that DASH can rise from an upstart restaurant ordering/delivery company into an empire spanning Restaurants, Convenience, Grocery and other CPG categories. Hedgeye believe that the company can easily exceed $70bn in Marketplace GOV in FY24, up over 80% from $37bn in FY21. Their bullish thesis also includes DASH’s opportunity to monetise DashPass (compares it to Amazon Prime/Starbucks Rewards) and its potential to capture substantial market share in the digital advertising space.

Communications

Report by TT Equity Research

Faces increased competition as Rocket enters the Dutch market and DoorDash targets Germany, another of TKWY’s key markets. To maintain market share, TKWY was already shifting further towards the loss-making own delivery side of the business. Now, with Rocket focused on marketplace revenues (offering lower commissions to restaurants to boost market share), TKWY is also being attacked on the cash generating side. These latest developments only strengthen Teun Teeuwisse's short thesis.

Report by Unit Economics

Since inception (31st Dec 2020) Nathan Weiss’ model portfolio has generated an impressive +25.09% total return (vs. +11.12% for S&P 500). He is currently 38.3% net long the energy sector (incl. Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure, ChampionX, Energy Transfer LP); 17.1% net long ‘re-opening’ names (incl. Dave & Buster’s, Six Flags) and 29.6% short ‘stay at home enablers’ (incl. Stitch Fix, ARK Next Generation Internet, Etsy, Wayfair). He recently increased his short position in DoorDash - sees >50% downside in a matter of months.