Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH)
Healthcare
With renewed speculation that AUPH is a takeout target, Paragon’s JetTrack platform can help investors track potential acquirers - although Biogen is the rumoured potential buyer, Fulgent Genetics is the only healthcare company to have flown to AUPH’s HQ in Victoria in the last two years. They registered a 'New Location' flight on 30th Dec 2021 and this is the only flight the company has registered to Victoria in the history of Paragon’s data set (goes back to 2007). Investors can also track flight activity to the locations of AUPH’s facilities around the globe by setting up geographical triggers in the platform.
Edition: 127
- 21 January, 2022
Healthcare
The stock should experience high volatility when the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issues its Decisions in Case Numbers: 20-1933 and 20-1673. These Decisions are significantly overdue. MDC Financial Research have been following these Cases closely and believe that there is a greater than 50% chance that this will go in favour of BIIB for its Tecfidera product. If correct, could add ~50 points to the current share price (~15% upside) vs. minimal downside.
Edition: 118
- 03 September, 2021
Event-Driven Legal℠ Investment-Research Opportunities
MDC’s “Event-Driven Legal℠” investment-research service follows significant legal disputes to provide clients with actionable investment ideas that tend to be non-correlated with the market. MDC has been providing its subscription “Event‐Driven Legal℠” investment‐research service since 2009. Typically, MDC keeps ~50 active cases on its Focus List and provides clients with breaking news/predictions during proceedings and analysis on important orders swiftly upon the Court publishing such information to its Docket. Current coverage includes: Amarin Pharma, Amgen, Biogen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Qualcomm, Renren and Xperi.
Edition: 116
- 06 August, 2021
FDA Aducanumab Approval - Calculating the CDMO Windfall
Healthcare
Intron Health have conducted a detailed analysis which shows how much aducanumab will need to be produced, who the winners are likely to be and the revenue uplift - they estimate that there are ~30m potential patients and a need for ~30,000kg of aducanumab. Biogen will only be able to produce ~25% of the quantity required, the rest will go to CDMOs. Biggest beneficiaries include Lonza (could see a 14% EBIT benefit and an 11% sales uplift vs. Intron’s 2024 forecasts) and Samsung Bio (potential 37% uplift to EBIT).
Edition: 112
- 11 June, 2021