Retail Cross Currents: 4 key themes & top stock ideas
Consumer
Gordon Haskett Research Advisors
GHRA highlights an unusually volatile retail backdrop through late 2025 and early 2026, noting multiple “cross currents” affecting both consumers and retailers. Recent rating changes include downgrades for Dollar Tree (Reduce) and BJ's Wholesale Club (Hold), while upgrades cover Williams-Sonoma (Buy), Wayfair (Accumulate), Kohl's (Accumulate) and Dick's Sporting Goods (Hold). GHRA’s key investment themes emphasise: 1) stocks offering both EPS upside and multiple expansion (Five Below, Ross Stores, Burlington); 2) underappreciated turnaround stories (Kohl's, Dollar General); 3) selective “rate-trade” exposure favouring home furnishings over home improvement (Williams-Sonoma, Wayfair, Tractor Supply); and 4) secular winners / “Coffee Can” stocks (Walmart, Costco, TJX, Ollie's Bargain Outlet, Casey's).
Edition: 221
- 03 October, 2025
Consumer Staples
Scott Mushkin downgrades DG to Sell, citing widening price gaps with competitors, which threaten margins and volume share gains over the next 12-18 months. R5’s latest fieldwork shows a total basket premium of 9% vs. Walmart - well above the typical 3-7% range. Scott now sees pressure from WMT starting to impact the back half of 2025; while Amazon’s push to speed up delivery times in rural areas, coupled with its low pricing for everyday essentials also appears be gaining momentum. At the same time, Dollar Tree is making inroads into DG’s core markets. Finally, regulatory risks from SNAP eligibility changes and the MAHA movement targeting sugary foods are expected to negatively impact sales.
Edition: 217
- 08 August, 2025
10Q / 10K filings analysis
Utilising AI, NLP, data analytics and qualitative analyst oversight, 280First can rapidly glean material / actionable insights from a company's financial reports. Recent alerts include: 1) Assured Guaranty - caution on liquidity claims; colour on impact from downgrade of financial strength. 2) Burlington - more positive views on comparable store sales. 3) Dollar Tree - may need to lower prices to remain competitive. 4) Keysight Technologies - seeing order cancellations? 5) Mattel - no longer focused on advancing e-Commerce and DTC business. 6) Salesforce - rethinking level of additional growth opportunities.
Edition: 183
- 05 April, 2024
Consumer Staples
Gordon Haskett Research Advisors
EPS north of $10.00 is very much on the cards for FY24 - shares of TGT were up 12% post 4Q earnings and are now up ~20% since GHRA turned bullish in early Feb. In their latest note, they make the case for both earnings upside and multiple appreciation (via traffic gains and business mix diversification). To this end and within their coverage universe, TGT joins the likes of Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Dick's Sporting Goods where this dynamic could play out in the months ahead. Their TP increases to $200 and is based on ~18.5x GHRA’s 2025 EPS of $10.75.
Edition: 181
- 08 March, 2024
Which unit growth stories can be bought at a discount?
Consumer Discretionary / Staples
John Zolidis reviewed 18 unit growth stories in the consumer space, breaking out the value of the existing business from the implied value of the growth option. He then calculated the value of future unit growth using a store level DCF. He compared the implied value of the growth option in the first exercise to expected value creation from store growth in the second. From this John solved for where the market was paying the largest premium to the value of future growth and where growth could be purchased at a discount. The most interesting names on the long side were Academy Sports & Outdoors, Luckin Coffee and Yum China. Sprouts Farmers Market still looks very cheap even after +50% move YTD. Investors are paying the biggest premium for Dollarama, Chipotle and Dollar Tree.
Edition: 176
- 22 December, 2023
Consumer Staples
Popular seasonal products and low-price points (down trading) drive strong Jan comps. According to Verbatim's latest channel survey, Jan SSS trends are stronger than Dec. Similarly, 4Q22 (Nov-Jan) trends are ahead of 3Q22. The current y/y comparison is more difficult than Q3 on a one-year basis and slightly easier on a two-year basis. In Q3, Verbatim required a bias of positive 240 bps. Based on stronger trends, and tougher y/y comparison, they are incorporating a bias of positive 200 bps in Jan. With a Jan Raw Comp of 10%, their Jan Comp Estimate is +12%. Their 4Q22 Comp Estimate is +10.2%. Click here to access the full report.
Edition: 153
- 03 February, 2023
Consumer Staples
The Battle vs. The War - ballooning freight costs may have obliterated DLTR this year, but the real call is on breaking the buck. Looking towards 2022, Brian McGough argues that DLTR has one of the best earnings setups in all of retail. The Street is underestimating TAIL earnings power and the impact of breaking the buck by over 40%. Meanwhile, management is wisely deploying capital with accelerated buybacks at these temporarily depressed EPS/stock levels. TP $200 (>100% upside).
Edition: 118
- 03 September, 2021
Boyar Research significantly outperforms the S&P 500…again
In April of last year Boyar Research released a special report detailing 19 companies they believed would do well amidst the market sell-off. One year later, the ideas profiled have advanced 77.7% on average, outperforming the S&P 500 by ~27%. This is especially noteworthy (as well as a testament to their stock picking ability) due to the lack of high-flying technology names featured. Companies highlighted include Dollar Tree, Hanesbrands, Laboratory Corp., Mohawk Industries, Howard Hughes Corp. and Watsco.
Edition: 109
- 30 April, 2021