Galderma (GALD SW) Switzerland
Healthcare
While GALD shares have performed well since the company’s IPO, the stock remains in a "discovery phase", in which its valuation appears expensive amid consensus estimates that do not fully appreciate the underlying fundamental opportunity. Over 50% of cash flows are derived from Botox and dermal fillers, positioning GALD in a duopoly market with a wider moat and longer growth runway than traditional beauty peers. GALD's core skincare business is growing ~10% annually (relative to L’Oreal’s sub-5% revenue growth), driven by exposure to higher value, nascent life cycle segments. The investment case is further supported by the company’s new eczema treatment, Nemluvio, which could generate $5bn+ in sales vs. management’s $2bn guidance. TP CHF230 (60% upside).
Edition: 220
- 19 September, 2025
L’Oreal (OR FP) France
Consumer Staples
Woozle’s 1Q25 channel checks reveal organic revenue trends that are materially below consensus estimates. European organic growth of 1.3% lagged Bloomberg’s 2.4% forecast, reflecting subdued consumer demand entering Q2. While targeted promotions stabilised volumes in Skin Care and Hair Care, high-margin categories like Derma and Fragrance underperformed, creating margin headwinds, particularly amid increased discounting pressure in the UK and Italy. Despite widespread price hikes in the Americas, consumer shifts toward lower-priced alternatives indicate weakened elasticity, while flat-to-slightly-up pricing in Europe masks underlying trade-down risks. Inventory conditions were mixed, with optimal stock levels in Europe contrasted by excess inventory in struggling US categories. Additionally, new product launches failed to significantly drive growth.
Edition: 208
- 04 April, 2025
Beiersdorf (BEI GR) Germany
Consumer Staples
BEI trades at an unwarranted 30% discount to L’Oreal - Alex Dwek sees untapped improvement potential for Nivea under a new leadership team focused on globalising / modernising the brand with bigger, fewer, and more impactful innovations and global marketing campaigns strategically focused on skin care to accelerate growth in large markets like China and the US. Alex also expects Eucerin to gain market share in dermocosmetics (a market growing double digits) and La Prairie to grow in the luxury segment. He forecasts MSD revenue growth for the foreseeable future and a margin expansion reaching 15.5% by 2025.
Edition: 175
- 08 December, 2023