Fourlis (FOYRK GA) Greece
Consumer Discretionary
ResearchGreece is keen to see the contribution from the new IKEA stores in Patra and Crete; the roll-out of Foot Locker stores; and the recovery from the recent cyber-attack. In short, evidence that the business plan is working. Management guides for €600m in retail sales and €38m in cash EBITDA in 2025, vs Q1 sales of €118m and EBITDA loss of €1.1m. Upcoming Q2 results will be key in assessing if the implied 2025-2027 CAGR +12% sales and +24% EBITDA are on track. ResearchGreece rates Fourlis as OI (Own it).
Edition: 219
- 05 September, 2025
Bank of Cyprus (BOCH CY) Cyprus
Financials
ResearchGreece was not surprised the bank raised its FY24 RoTE guidance to >24% from >17% following Q2 results (they had been expecting this ever since Q1). Meanwhile, management has announced its decision to list the stock on the ATHEX (and de-list from the LSE) which should improve trading liquidity. ResearchGreece reiterates their OWN IT (OI) rating and raises their TP to €5.8. This comes as the result of their higher estimates in 2024-2026. They expect dividends of €180m-€195m in 2024-2025 on 40% and 50% payout respectively, pointing to a dividend yield of >10% at current prices.
Edition: 193
- 23 August, 2024
Communications
Despite the ~45% rally YTD, New Street continues to like the Brazilian Telco stocks. Wireless operator dynamics remain very favourable with FCF supported significantly for TIM in the near-term by Oi tower decommissioning, with a potentially broader reset for the industry relative to the Tower cos over the mid-term (part of a broader EM theme perhaps following IHS in Nigeria). New Street has lifted their estimates again after TIM's Q3 results (particularly EBITDAaL). With the IOC tax issue (elimination of tax deductibility) likely a 2025 issue at the earliest they see the stock continuing to run into 2024. TIM is preferred over Vivo at these levels on valuation and with higher wireless exposure.
Edition: 175
- 08 December, 2023
Bank of Cyprus (BOCH CY) Cyprus
Financials
The bank has reported a super strong set of Q2 results, driven by the wide(r) loan-deposit rate asymmetry boosting NII +21% Q/Q / +164% Y/Y, with clean RoTE at 25% (vs. 21% in Q1). ResearchGreece raises their 2023 RoTE estimate to 19.6% (vs. management guidance of >17%) and reiterates their OWN IT (OI) rating with a TP of €5.9 (100% upside). Unless earnings are hit by a windfall tax, they expect the 30% minimum pay-out guidance to equal a 9% dividend yield next year and rise closer to 10% by 2025; shareholders will be pocketing c.30% of the bank’s M/Cap in the form of dividends during 2023-25.
Edition: 167
- 18 August, 2023
ADMIE (ADMIE GA) Greece
Utilities
ResearchGreece addresses the following dividend-yield-buffer questions: a) How likely is it that the RAE will approve a higher WACC for IPTO? b) If so, what about RAB evolution? c) What is the impact on the fair value of ADMIE? d) What should investors do with the stock? A +100bps higher WACC means IPTO is worth €1.97-2.46bn based on peer multiples applied on 2024-2025 EBITDA. Therefore, ADMIE's 51% stake is worth €920m-1.06bn in NPV 2023 terms against a M/Cap of €555m. ResearchGreece estimates ADMIE's dividend yield at 5.3%-6.6% in 2023-2025 and upgrades their stock rating to OI (OWN IT) with a TP of €4.0 (70% upside).
Edition: 166
- 04 August, 2023
Jumbo (BELA GA) Greece
Consumer Discretionary
ResearchGreece reiterates their Own It 'OI' recommendation forecasting significant upside following the H1 results. As always the messages were contradictory on guidance, revenue and net income, but ultimately Jumbo has a successful business model, strong balance sheet, cash flow generation and dividend policy. All currently priced at 6.9x EPS (x-cash), 4.6x EBITDA and 8% FCFE yield 2023E. They were able to announce a special dvidend of E0.38/share (2.7% yield).
Edition: 145
- 30 September, 2022
Spotting opportunities in Greek equities
Covering 22 names (80% of total M/Cap), ResearchGreece provides unbiased research, analysis and ideas on Greek (& Cypriot) equities. They offer a clear-cut, binary rating system: Own It (OI) or Do not Own It (DOI). Two stocks they are particularly keen on are…
National Bank of Greece (ETE) - Deserves to be trading at a higher P/TBV multiple than the current 0.50x; enjoys the highest FL CET1 among Greek banks; will benefit the most from a loan rate increase given its low L/D ratio; boasts the lowest combination of NPE ratio and NPE coverage.
OPAP (OPAP) - Q4/FY results comfortably beat expectations on stronger online contribution (Betting and Casino) and GGR/EBITDA guidance for 2022 points to ~40% growth Y/Y. In addition, the dividend was increased to €1.5/share (11% yield).
Edition: 133
- 14 April, 2022