Outside of AI, why invest in the US?
US equities remain the world’s most important market, but passive benchmarks are distorted by AI concentration risk. Durable alpha lies in structural themes beyond AI. Power infrastructure (Constellation, Duke, NextEra) will benefit from grid bottlenecks as data centres drive demand. Re-industrialisation (Caterpillar, Honeywell, Rockwell) reflects reshoring and automation. The energy transition (Dominion, Enphase, ExxonMobil) requires trillions in capex. Housing scarcity (D.R. Horton, Home Depot, Lennar) is a structural imbalance. Healthcare innovation (Abbott, Eli Lilly, UnitedHealth) rides longevity and med-tech advances. Cybersecurity (Cisco, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto) is non-discretionary. Generational wealth transfer (BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Schwab) reshapes capital flows. The AI productivity super-cycle is real, but thematic allocations across these shifts offer broader, smarter US exposure.
Edition: 220
- 19 September, 2025
IT Survey: Robust spend, GenAI boom, staffing cuts
Technology
Rosenblatt’s July survey of 100+ senior IT managers reveals a surprisingly robust IT spending outlook, with two-thirds of budgets being revised higher since the start of 2025, despite macro concerns. GenAI is the top investment priority, with 60% increasing spend and nearly 70% expecting a material organisational impact. Over 75% expect developer staffing cuts of 10%+. Cybersecurity remains a defensive spending priority with investment flowing towards securing modern, distributed environments (Cloud, SASE/SSE) and data itself - benefitting CrowdStrike, CyberArk, Palo Alto, Zscaler and Fortinet. AWS fared much better, ranking first in "cloud service provider best positioned in AI", with 28% (vs. 16% in Dec 24), surpassing Google and Microsoft. Infrastructure names like Snowflake, Rubrik and MongoDB are also well-positioned amid data estate modernisation.
Edition: 216
- 25 July, 2025
Technology
Overall trends for 1Q25 are weaker Y/Y, according to Verbatim’s latest channel survey. The majority of respondents reported that they are not meeting their internal goals, while their sales activity for PANW is also below their expectations. Price sensitivity, delayed projects, negative market environment, and competition from Fortinet and Cisco are the major headwinds for the current period. The average sales cycle is either the same or slightly longer (ranges between 4-18 months). Deal sizes are mostly either flat or up Y/Y. A North American system integrator also mentions that new product launches are having no impact on overall sales.
Edition: 199
- 15 November, 2024
Technology
Verbatim’s initial channel checks indicate that Q2 trends are drastically weaker on a Y/Y basis by 30% on average. Strong competitor offerings, lack of perceived need for advanced security solutions and budget constraints are reasons for lost sales. Q3 trends are also expected to be mostly weaker Y/Y. Verbatim also hears that there are no additional marketing efforts from CHKP to boost the sales pipeline. The company is either losing or having no changes in market share. While Fortinet seems to be gaining traction, particularly in the SMB space, they hear that Palo Alto is making headway in larger companies.
Edition: 190
- 12 July, 2024
Cybersecurity: Potential SEC investigations
Technology
Last October the SEC charged SolarWinds and its chief information security officer with fraud. This report looks at other companies in the cybersecurity industry that may have similar risks to an SEC investigation. Based on Veritas' Freedom of Information Act work, they received confirmations from the SEC pertaining to 15 publicly-listed cybersecurity stocks. Out of the 15 issuers confirmed, 2 attracted SEC scrutiny. Stocks mentioned: Palo Alto, CrowdStrike, Fortinet, Zscaler, Cloudflare, Check Point, Okta, Gen Digital, CyberArk, SentinelOne, Qualys, Tenable, Varonis, Rapid7 and SecureWorks.
Edition: 186
- 17 May, 2024
Technology
While SPR’s field contacts mostly support the views discussed in PANW's recent earnings report, they also found a few factors that the company did not highlight. Issues include “security fatigue” that is resulting from time needed to implement all the tools that end users have purchased, but in PANW’s case, channels also see this fatigue resulting from overselling of ELAs. Industry contacts flagged competitive pressure (especially in cloud computing) and also helped to explain the delays / forecasting issues in PANW’s Fed business. On the opportunity side, all agree that the company has one of the most competitive security platforms, while its product and pricing strategy positions it well to compete for the Next Gen SIEM opportunity that is just starting to open up.
Edition: 182
- 22 March, 2024
Technology
Feedback from channel contacts on the company's core PAM solution continues to be strong, while CYBR is also the standout beneficiary of the MGM breach. Pipeline generation is healthy. Sales Pulse has heard examples of reps “sitting on deals” to push into the next quarter… always a good sign. Some resellers they talked to shared that CYBR encouraged them to get their SE’s trained and certified on the new CYBR Workforce and Identity offerings, but so far these resellers, have not seen much professional services business based on this investment. Elsewhere, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Zscaler and Okta all look solid, while Fortinet and Tenable have the softest channel sentiment.
Edition: 171
- 13 October, 2023
Technology
SPR’s latest channel checks reveal surprising weakness - although PANW still has time left until the close of its fiscal year, SPR notes that it has been quite a while since they picked up weak checks, even mid quarter. Interestingly, their checks on Fortinet have been more positive. So what is happening at PANW? Possible factors include 1) pushback by customers against multiple significant price hikes, 2) in this macro environment, big deals are easy targets for delay, 3) SPR has picked up numerous examples of complaints about the firm's Tech Support.
Edition: 165
- 21 July, 2023
Technology
SPR’s latest channel checks have picked up more examples of ZS being replaced, primarily by Palo Alto, but also by Netskope as well as customers switching to Cloudflare and Cato Networks. One regional VAR commented "ZS is looking worse, more discounting and deal flow is slowing”, while another said “Customer feedback, or perception, is that ZS functionality in CASB, DLP, and Zero Trust is falling behind PANW and Netskope". Elsewhere, SPR has picked up some signs of improvement for SentinelOne, while views on CrowdStrike have been fairly positive and a little better than the mixed views from the past few quarters.
Edition: 160
- 12 May, 2023
Advanced AI: Sink or swim time for cybersecurity vendors
Technology
How are AI advancements and hype affecting the cybersecurity industry? What are data security vendors doing with AI/ML and cybersecurity automation, and can they protect their market from the major cloud operators with their investments in AI-driven security for their own platforms? During the interviews conducted by Blueshift, industry sources were also asked how they would play the sector near to mid-term and out over time. Companies discussed include Amazon, CrowdStrike, Cisco, CyberArk, Fortinet, Google, IBM, Microsoft, Okta, Palo Alto and Zscaler.
Edition: 158
- 14 April, 2023
IT Spending & Cyber Security
Technology
As always, SPR will be tracking the trajectory of IT spending, changing priorities and competitive dynamics for the segments and vendors they follow. Key questions / themes for 2023 include: IT Spending: 1) Which vendors are seeing more than anticipated pressure from reduction in seats and end user efforts to contain costs? 2) Vendors benefitting from the rapid growth in DevOps / DevSecOps. Cyber Security: 3) Which vendors are executing well with XDR solutions, capturing share and potentially disrupting existing vendors? 4) Maturing of the End Point Protection market. 5) Growth for Zero Trust Network Architectures. Additional Themes: 6) Vendors successfully leveraging AI / ML. 7) M&A speculation.
Positive views include: Palo Alto, Cyberark, Five9, Snowflake, Ciena, Datadog. Cautious: ServiceNow, Salesforce, Tenable.
Edition: 151
- 06 January, 2023
Technology
Earnings beat expectations and Next-Gen security ARR surpasses $2bn for the first time, in what Srini Nandury describes as a “stunning achievement” - PANW continues to see strong demand as security remains the most resilient of IT budget priorities within the enterprise and the group now possesses arguably the broadest offering in the industry. Srini expects Cisco will continue to cede share to PANW (as it has been doing for the last several quarters). The stock trades at 5.3x EV/C2024 sales vs. peer avg. of 5.0x, but a premium multiple is warranted. Srini's $200 TP translates to 6.7x EV/C2024 sales of ~$9bn.
Edition: 149
- 25 November, 2022
Giant layoffs loom as Tech firms face customer budget freezes
Blueshift’s IT sector sources are pointing at Oracle’s plan to cut c.30k jobs as the crack in the dam that is going to trigger a resizing of workforces across all of tech - as one recruitment executive said, “They have literally been making up jobs for the past several years to beat each other to talent. It had nothing to do with rightsizing. It was a competition to impress investors.” Sources were unanimous that earnings forecasts for the rest of the year across most vendors in all verticals of DIY enterprise networking are going to be poor. Companies covered include Arista Networks, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Dell, Fortinet, IBM, Palo Alto and Zscaler.
Edition: 140
- 22 July, 2022
Security software earnings quality comparison
Technology
BTN’s earnings quality comparison on six of the major security software players (Cloudflare, Palo Alto Networks, Okta, Fortinet, Zscaler and CrowdStrike) examines factors such as relative dependence on stock options and policies regarding capitalised software, sales commissions, network depreciation, and aggressiveness of non-GAAP adjustments. The report ranks the company from most to least aggressive.
Edition: 137
- 10 June, 2022
Security channels continue to see strong growth for most vendors
Technology
While channels see security budgets as strong for the rest of the year there is concern that the time required to implement some projects has become extended because of a lack of skilled resources. This may result in delays of add-on orders in 2H. US Fed spending which had seen some delays due to operation under CR (Continuing Resolution) is now back on track. Sales Pulse has also found no evidence that Okta lost accounts following its recent breach, however they did hear of some new deals being delayed. Other stocks featured include CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, SentinelOne and Zscaler.
Edition: 136
- 27 May, 2022
Further acceleration in cyber security; other areas of IT spending are mixed
Technology
SPR's preliminary survey results report strong momentum in Q1, and the majority see continued, or accelerated growth for the rest of the year - consistent with previous views and recent reports, those Security Vendors most called out as seeing strong growth are Palo Alto, Zscaler, CrowdStrike, Fortinet and SentinelOne. Also consistent with views from last quarter, vendors with improving checks include Tenable, Ping Identity and Check Point. In contrast, SaaS vendors are having to work much harder to achieve their goals - SPR’s channels noted that SaaS projects were among those that were being pushed out.
Edition: 134
- 29 April, 2022
Technology Trends: Change, disruption and opportunity in 2022
1) The acceleration from legacy security solutions to the newer generation of solutions - SASE / shake-up of enterprise networking and network security (Zscaler, Cloudflare, Palo Alto Networks).
2) Leverage of AI in cloud-based communications and collaboration (CCaaS) to the advantage of vendors who are separating themselves from commodity services and pricing (Five9, NICE). Changing competitive landscape as Zoom, Microsoft, and others collide in the large and growing UCaaS market.
3) Further strength in BI / Analytics / Observability to the benefit of vendors with the strongest cloud-based solutions (Datadog, Dynatrace), but more mixed results from vendors transitioning to SaaS (Teradata, Elastic).
Edition: 128
- 04 February, 2022