Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers
Company Research
Special Sits Idea Forum
The majority of ideas presented at MYST's latest buyside event were industrial-related, with themes including potential takeouts, SOTP simplification stories and power-related names. Stocks highlighted include:
Aptiv (APTV) - “GoodCo vs. BadCo” split to unlock hidden value of Connection Systems business. TP $125 (45% upside).
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) - unappreciated assets create “zero enterprise value” amid positive FCF inflection. TP $28 (180% upside).
DuPont de Nemours (DD) - re-rating tailwinds fuelled by fundamental and technical catalysts. TP $115 (45% upside).
Idaho Strategic Resources (IDR) - enormous upside from potential US government partnership / investment.
Peloton (PTON) - new product launches + subscription price increase to accelerate turnaround.
Ralliant (RAL) - ignored "broken spin” poised for positive revision cycle. TP $60 (35% upside).
Edition: 221
- 03 October, 2025
Japan: The political economy of wages and rate hikes
Manoj Pradhan discusses the case for the BoJ to back off. He first references the global monetary peloton, directed by the Fed, which is running collectively in the opposite direction to the BoJ and threatens to weaken its fundamentals. He also discusses the politics of real wage declines, which has created political headwinds at a time the government is fighting a corruption scandal. Finally, there’s the fact that both capex and consumption need further support from the BoJ. Since March 2023 Manoj has been LONG Japanese equities, a decision based on an extraordinary move in planned and realised capex. Private non-residential investment remains promising, but much of that depends on profitability, which in turn depends partly on a weaker Yen. The graphs show higher profits feeding into capex intentions… a change in the monetary regime can dislodge capex via a stronger Yen and weaker profits. Manoj recommends staying LONG Japanese equities.
Edition: 177
- 12 January, 2024
Japan: Playing an easy BoJ
The Fed’s ‘attack’ on the global central bank peloton has almost certainly played an important role in keeping the BoJ on hold. That keeps the monetary stance very much in line with weak cyclical domestic fundamentals and structural drivers that need encouragement. An easy BoJ allows Manoj Pradhan to stay long the Nikkei (with support from a Yen that doesn’t strengthen too much). Has the BoJ missed its window to hike? For now, Manoj hopes so. He says that there is a fundamentally sound window for the BoJ to tighten, but it will appear when the planned fiscal expansion, capex drive and services inflation are all entrenched. One can only hope the BoJ doesn’t think January or any time soon is the time to go.
Edition: 176
- 22 December, 2023
European & US short ideas
Since Vision pitched their short thesis on Vidrala, Verallia and O-I Glass at our Equity Shorting Conference in mid-Mar the stocks have underperformed the Stoxx600 by ~8%. In the last couple of months they have also initiated 3 new European shorts, 3 new US shorts, and has readied a new $7bn+ European short (trades ~$20m/day and has short interest of <1%) for initiation next week. Please join Vision for a meeting while members of their team are in Paris (Jun 5th-6th), Zurich (Jun 7th) and London (Jun 8th-12th).
In the last 24 months, Vision has closed several shorts including: Allegro, AutoStore, Boohoo, Burlington, Colruyt, De'Longhi, Electrolux, Gerresheimer, H&M, Hargreaves Lansdown, Inditex, New Relic, Nokian Tyres, Peloton, Similarweb, Thule, Trex, TSMC, UiPath and Whirlpool.
Edition: 161
- 26 May, 2023
A new $3bn+ M/Cap European industrial short
Industrials
Trades >$10m/day and has <1% short interest - will be lapping price increases at a time when volumes have turned negative and there are substitution threats and declining per capita usage of products at some of its largest customers. It trades >10x EV/EBITDA on 2023 estimates that call for 40% growth in EBITDA.
In the last 24 months, Vision has closed several shorts including: Allegro, Boohoo, Colruyt, H&M, Inditex, New Relic, Nokian Tyres, Peloton, Similarweb, Thule, Trex, TSMC and UiPath.
Edition: 154
- 17 February, 2023
Consumer Discretionary
A complete disaster - six quarters in a row of declining results, despite management talking about a turnaround. Yes, negative cash flow is now (only!) $411m, instead of -$600m, but there is now no growth in subs (4Q22 was the lowest quarter for net sub adds in PTON history; 1Q23 will be worse) and the churn rate almost doubled! PTON is hitting the wall at 7m total members and <3m paying members. This is exactly what Tom Chanos predicted when he first shorted the stock at $102 back in Sep 2021. The whole bull story is destroyed. Tom cuts his target price to $5.00, but the stock will most likely go to zero without a buyout.
Edition: 143
- 02 September, 2022
Short model portfolio outperforms by 31%
26 out of New Constructs’ 32 ideas outperformed in 1H22 with an average return of -50% compared to a 19% decline for the S&P 500. Underscoring just how important reliable fundamental research is in turbulent markets, their model portfolio has beaten the S&P by an even wider margin (48%) since the start of 2021. Top performers have been Coinbase, Carvana, Peloton, Snap, Beyond Meat and Lyft. As we enter 2H22 high conviction shorts include Netflix, Uber, Shopify and Robinhood.
Edition: 140
- 22 July, 2022
Consumer Discretionary
Another profitless prosperity stock - Tom Chanos sees no way to scale the business. FRPT has been unprofitable for 10 straight years, 2022 will make it 11. Margins are collapsing even with price hikes; burns cash like crazy (latest offering only buys them c.9 months); and much bigger competitors, no barriers to entry. Selling expensive pet food in a recession is a bad place to be. TP $25 (50% downside). Other short ideas initiated by Tom over the last year include Peloton, Carvana and Coinbase.
Edition: 139
- 08 July, 2022
Consumer Discretionary
Moving to subscription is going to hurt - slashing the price of its new Guide product, has ensured that PTON will lose money every time it sells a device. It has also reduced the subscription that goes along with Guide. While the digitisation of personal training is the right strategy, we are going to see a big correction in revenues and the reality is that the company is not really trading on a 2022 EV/Sales multiple of 2.2x but something closer to 6x or 7x. Richard Windsor continues to have no desire to go bottom fishing for PTON.
Edition: 133
- 14 April, 2022
Exciting new $5bn+ Industrial Short
Industrials
Trades more than $30m/day and has short interest below 5% - over-earned in 2021, faces increasing competition and bullish estimates, and its inventory accounting method may have unsustainably boosted margins.
Vision Research aims to find liquid, non-consensus, fundamental US & European shorts, generating ~25 new ideas p.a. The shorts initiated by Vision during 2021 have fallen an average of 9%, with average alpha of 16%. Stocks that fell more than 25% included Peloton, UiPath, Allegro, Boohoo, Traeger, Children’s Place, SimilarWeb and Vital Farms.
Edition: 128
- 04 February, 2022
Consumer Discretionary
Another timely short from Robert Prather - dismal earnings has seen $10bn+ wiped from PTON's market cap. Having initiated coverage mid Sep’21 at $112 (58-page report available on request), the shares are now languishing just above $50. PTON is the latest in several successful short calls from Vision Research. In fact, of the 23 ideas they have initiated on in the past 12 months, 20 have generated positive alpha (in a rising market), including UiPath, Vital Farms, Boohoo and Allegro (share price has fallen 40%+ from recent highs).
Edition: 123
- 12 November, 2021
Consumer Discretionary
Peloton is Peddling into an all-familiar Headwind. It is yet another fad exercise equipment maker given ridiculous multi-year valuations by Wall Street. COVID-19 pulled forward years of consumer demand. Subscriber & workout numbers are in decline, inventories are building up and equipment prices are being slashed. Even at all-time sales levels PTON never made an annual profit. For historic examples see NordicTrack and BowFlex. TP $50 (~40% downside)
Edition: 121
- 15 October, 2021
Sweden: Keep fighting the Riksbank
The Swedish Riksbank is foolish to believe that it can keep rates on hold for 3 years more than Norway’s Norges Bank, according to Manoj Pradhan. The truth is that the fundamentals in Sweden, including much higher-than-expected inflation, point to much greater similarities between the two nations. Expect at least two rate hikes over 2022-23, if not more. Paying 2y Sweden still remains the most asymmetric rates trade in the central bank peloton.
Edition: 119
- 17 September, 2021
Welcome to the subscription economy
We are living in a new world… one that is increasingly based on services instead of goods. One-time purchases are out of the window and long-term relationships are here to stay, the change driven by demographic drivers and a slowdown in new household formation by millennials. From Netflix to Peloton, subscription services are here to stay.
Edition: 110
- 14 May, 2021