FTSE 100 Technical Review
Messels’ weekly Stocks & Sectors report highlights renewed strength in Aerospace and Banks, with selective improvement in Miners and long-term support levels being monitored for Media stocks. New Buys include Sainsbury's (breaking out of a two-year range and gains relative momentum) and HSBC (breaking out of a short-term range and renews outperformance). Entain, a Buy last week, is finding support above prior price and relative bases. Messels also closes their long position in Ashtead as it reaches potential price and relative resistance following a strong rally since Apr. Other notable moves include: Babcock renews price and relative uptrends; Fresnillo has broken resistance and made one-year price and relative highs; while RELX approaches long-term support. Messels’ FTSE 100 Momentum portfolio currently consists of 19 stocks.
Edition: 220
- 19 September, 2025
FTSE 100 Technical Review
Messels' weekly Stocks & Sectors report highlights continued improvement in Services, Media and Banks, while reducing exposure to Consumer sectors. New Buys include Ashtead (broken out of 2-year price and relative ranges) and Barclays (renews the uptrend and has broken out of 8-year price and relative ranges). They have also closed longs in Whitbread (lacks momentum in the short term), Imperial Brands (maintains the uptrend but is reaching the top of the relative range), Howden Joinery (lost momentum and developed short term price and relative tops) and Marks & Spencer (reaching medium term price and relative resistance). Following these changes, Messels’ FTSE 100 Momentum portfolio now consists of 16 stocks.
Edition: 199
- 15 November, 2024
Industrials
Although investors have favoured equipment stocks amid a perceived Industrial & Infrastructure Super Cycle in the US, recent 3Q23 earnings results from companies such as ABB and Rexel suggest otherwise as trends are slowing rapidly, with both orders and construction activity worsening as interest rates rise. Investors do not properly appreciate that renters of AHT’s equipment are primarily small businesses that require financing and working capital from small / regional banks. These loans are typically based on adjustable rates and recent NFIB surveys corroborate that credit is drying up. Ultimately, AHT’s margins will be pressured as utilisation rates suffer. TP £30.00 (40% downside).
Edition: 173
- 10 November, 2023
Industrials
Andrew Hollingworth wonders how many AHT observers really understand the financial model of the company and the powerful compounding it will likely result in. If you were offered to invest in a company with a high likelihood of it growing turnover at 13% p.a., EPS at 18% p.a. & receiving a 1.5% p.a. dividend yield, what price might you be prepared to pay? Andrew suggests a 15x multiple offers much value vs. that prospect. These are the growth rate metrics that AHT has achieved in the 8 years between 2015 and 2023 and 15x is the multiple of 3/24 earnings it changes hands for today. The future, of course is different to the past…or is it? He sees a realistic prospect of 20% investor IRR’s.
Edition: 169
- 15 September, 2023
Industrials
While not as foolishly cheap as it was in the summer of 2020 (9x PE), today’s multiple of 18x (Apr 23) and offering ~15% p.a. return, looks very attractive whether we are in a 0% interest rate world or a 3% one. AHT continues to grow strongly across all areas; while its execution and articulation of its capital allocation model is exceptional. For all the market’s changing moods towards interest rates, war, growth, etc., a very large proportion of AHT’s future growth is within its own control as it enlarges its market position using its scale powerfully to do so.
Edition: 131
- 18 March, 2022
Industrials
Size Matters - AHT to double its market share to 20% in highly fragmented US equipment rental market. The two market leaders (United Rentals and AHT) can consolidate their collective share toward 50% over the next 10 years. 2Xideas expect a revenue CAGR from FY21 to FY27E of 10.4% (8% organic) and net profit growth of 14.8% p.a. Margin expansion will result from productivity gains, operating leverage and a higher contribution from its Specialty segment. RoAIC to rise from 9.8% to 13.6%. Annualised total return of 12.6%.
Edition: 117
- 20 August, 2021