EVENTS:   The Great Reset: AI, Geopolitics and The End of The Cheap Chips - MS Hwang/Counterpoint Research - 10 Feb 26   Making Weather Pay – The Outlook For Global Commodities - James Roemer/Best Weather - 11 Feb 26     ROADSHOWS: Thematic Research Based Ideas - David Scott /CHA-AM Advisors   •   London   06 - 06 Feb 26       Commodities Research with a Focus on Oil and Energy - Kathleen Kelley /Queen Anne's Gate Capital   •   London   10 - 10 Feb 26       Predictive Investment Models for Idea Generation and Risk Management - Hugh Vuillier /Variant Perception   •   New York   16 - 19 Feb 26      
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Expectations analysis for European Apparel & Branded Goods

Consumer Discretionary

Willis Welby

Luxury Goods have had a reputation for being one of Europe’s growth areas for a long time and last month they performed well ahead of wider indices. Although the median implied to Y3 EBITM ratio of Willis Welby’s large cap universe is now 96, that still feels tenable given the generally high levels of financial productivity and the almost universal high levels of current and projected revenue growth. In this note, they focus on Cucinelli. While the company is currently on a roll, Willis Welby finds expectations ratios far too high and financial productivity too low. The likes of Kering, Inditex, Richemont and Moncler look far more appealing.

Edition: 151

- 06 January, 2023