The Arbitrage Between Unlisted & Listed Infrastructure Assets
Industrials
Transaction volumes have risen from €20bn p.a. in 2019-20 to €58bn in 2021, with acquirers preying on listed assets, such as ASPI, Sydney Airport, OMA and IRB. Having reviewed the 109 largest deals (2015-21), Robert Crimes reveals transportation infrastructure listed valuations are at c.30% discounts to transactions based relative to Insight’s NAV.s (set by DCF.s) and share prices need to rise c.40% to close the valuation gap. His top picks (combining undervaluation and probability of a takeover) are Inwit, Getlink, Aleatica and Ferrovial.
Edition: 124
- 26 November, 2021
Industrials
Unregulated, efficient, undervalued with an improving Asian driven passenger mix - SYD has the highest EBITDA margins in Insight’s airport universe (81.5% in 2019). Following 1H21 results, Robert Crimes updates his long-term model forecasts (beyond 2030) and believes the recently proposed offer by an IFM led consortium to be highly opportunistic (it was rejected by management) - the A$8.45/share offer represents a 42% discount to Insight’s target price.
Edition: 118
- 03 September, 2021