What if copper reaches $7/lb?

Global Mining Research

With the metal starting 2026 with strong price momentum, David Radclyffe’s team examines the “what if” upside for the nine senior copper pure plays. In the year ahead, David estimates a 410kt copper deficit, as Grasberg and other issues feed through, and that is before production guidance downgrades are announced for some. The copper market is tight. Best leverage to higher copper prices is with First Quantum Minerals Ltd and Teck Resources Ltd, showing high EPS upside near term and with long-term upside to NPV assuming copper stays at US$7/lb indefinitely. Least upside is with Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V. and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd, albeit still good. GMR’s quality vs value screen highlights Grupo México S.A.B. de C.V. and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. as offering better value, although not with the best leverage. The chief risk is the obvious one, that copper is near-term overbought with long-term prices expected lower.

- 09 January, 2026

Copper: Gold to the rescue

Veritas Investment Research

China, the largest copper market, shows no signs of improvement. Meanwhile, the global copper market recorded a 251k-ton surplus in the first half of the year, and some studies are projecting further surpluses for FY2026. Broader commodity signals reinforce this outlook, particularly the sustained weakness in iron ore prices. Expect a 5-10% decline in copper prices by year-end. Interestingly, in Veritas Research’s sample of nine copper producers, costs decreased by an average 16% and 21% in the last two quarters, driven by higher gold prices for which the precious metal is a by-product. Hudbay as a result takes the crown as the lowest cost producer, with strong growth potential and the lowest valuation in their sample. Teck Resources and Lundin Mining are fighting for the dubious honour of being the highest cost producer.

- 05 September, 2025

Special Situations Idea Forum

MYST Advisors

The majority of stocks presented at MYST’s latest buy-side event had very near-term (<6 months) catalysts to unlock value either through business transformations, fundamental business inflections, M&A / spin-off activities, or “technical” tailwinds. Ideas included:

Core Scientific (CORZ) - Bitcoin mining conversion provides “shortcut” to new data centre capacity. TP $18 (85% upside).
Golar LNG (GLNG) - “Orphan stock” nearing closure of multiple lucrative long-term FLNG vessel contracts. TP $75 (145% upside).
Jacobs Solutions (J) - Long-awaited exit from “deal purgatory” to finally showcase fundamental strength. TP $180 (30% upside).
Teck Resources (TECK) - Coal divestiture creates significant re-rate potential / M&A optionality. TP $65 (35% upside).

- 28 June, 2024

Canadian mines for Canadian owners?

Global Mining Research

The recent moves related to Teck Resources has prompted some jingoistic statements from mining participants and the government about Canadian ownership of Canadian assets. David Radclyffe examines the ownership of mines in the country, finding that, although Canadian gold mines are mostly owned by the country’s miners, Canada represents just one-quarter of the value of mines owned by Canadian domiciled gold stocks. Should the jingoism be contagious, Canadian miners will be the losers if the insistence of local ownership spreads. Preferred Canadian domiciled gold stocks are Barrick and B2Gold among the senior stocks and Lundin Gold as a junior stock.

- 12 May, 2023

Teck Resources (TECK/B CN)

Materials

Global Mining Research

After several years of market speculation TECK is set to spin off its coal business. The Canadian mining group plans to create via a complex scheme of arrangement the jettisoning met coal on the one hand and keeping the cash flow on the other. Financial markets and media are split. Clearly, some have called the move a positive one, while others use terms like “climate placebo” and “greenwashing” and “have your cake and eat it”. Having examined the proposal in detail, GMR is not in favour of the move. If anything, it simply brings to the fore TECK’s reliance on coal. That aside, as a base metal play TECK isn’t cheap vs. peers.

- 31 March, 2023