What’s trending in Retail
Consumer Discretionary
Each week, The Retail Tracker offers an insightful perspective on retail, fashion and consumer trends and what it means for the stocks. So far this year, Garage is a standout, nailing the “sexy x comfy” aesthetic for teens and taking share from Aerie and Pink. Gap and Old Navy are “crushing it” with consistently strong assortments, offsetting tariff challenges through fewer markdowns. Meanwhile, Urban Outfitters and Nuuly are gaining traction, with Nuuly emerging as a promising rental and tech-driven play. Aritzia is showing good momentum with its best assortment in some time. Department stores may be in free fall, but the best Macy’s stores have never looked better. In contrast, Lululemon is losing its way, expanding beyond its core and diluting its brand identity, while Bath & Body Works' range of new items is exhausting.
Edition: 214
- 27 June, 2025
There are two lanes in retail winning right now - momentum and improvement
Consumer Discretionary
Brands with good momentum include Lululemon, Abercrombie, Chico’s, Steve Madden, LVMH, Prada, Ralph Lauren and Macy’s. According to The Retail Tracker, these retailers are entering the back half of the year with the consumer on their side and good assortments. In the improvement lane, they highlight Gap, Target, American Eagle, Bath & Body Works and Nike. They also like the risk:reward in two currently out of favour names - Williams-Sonoma (a high-quality company, with exceptional brands / leadership) and Victoria's Secret (left for dead / trades at a steep discount).
Edition: 166
- 04 August, 2023
Consumer Discretionary
Major blow as Amy Hauk (CEO of the VS and Pink brands) resigns - Janet Kloppenburg had been optimistic that Hauk’s well-regarded brand-positioning and merchandising / sourcing expertise would be effective in executing the company’s plan to increase domestic market share through elevation of the VS brand and through a successful repositioning of the Pink brand. However, Janet is now concerned that the execution of this program and the outlook for sales gains and margin improvement to reaccelerate in 2H23 may be at risk. She lowers her (below consensus) 4Q22 and F23 EPS estimates to $2.15 and $4.75, respectively.
Edition: 151
- 06 January, 2023
Consumer Discretionary
Shares down 40% YTD and 20% since the split - trades at <6x 2022 EPS, a very depressed multiple for a company with real potential to grow. Since Martin Waters took the helm, the brand has made significant changes to the stores, marketing, product assortments, partnerships and even the structure of the international business. Changes are resonating with the consumer. She is re-engaging at high rates, and they are bringing in new customers. Expects to see more collaborations / partnerships as well as investments as the company begins to think about the VS brand more as a platform for their customer rather than just a simple intimates brand.
Edition: 138
- 24 June, 2022
Consumer: The recovery engine is reigniting as Covid threats once again wane
Consumer Discretionary
JJK looks for the consumer’s appetite to renew normal living to support upside across PVH, Victoria's Secret, TJX and Ulta Beauty. Demand driven by a return to work, social activities and travel should fuel continued demand strength for apparel, accessories and beauty. With strong evidence from the luxury players including LVMH and Capri Holdings, JJK expects the consumer’s strong demand for these categories to be sustained, with little resistance to elevated pricing.
Edition: 128
- 04 February, 2022