EM Telcos: When does digital drive a re-rating?
Communications
New Street examines when EM Telcos transition from being “Telcos with digital assets” to “Digital-first” companies and when the market begins to re-rate them accordingly. Their analysis of Safaricom and SoftBank Corp suggests that valuation multiples expand once digital revenues reach 15-20% of total sales. New St flags VEON, MTN, Airtel Africa, Vodacom, Kyivstar and Telefonica Brasil as EM operators now approaching this threshold. Digital businesses typically command higher growth, superior ROIC and lower regulatory risk, supporting a valuation premium. Reflecting this view, New Street upgrades their price targets for VEON ($100), Kyivstar ($16.4), Vivo (R$43), AAF (GBP 380), Vodacom (ZAR 200), Safaricom (KES 32) and MTN (ZAR 245).
Edition: 223
- 31 October, 2025
Communications
Despite the ~45% rally YTD, New Street continues to like the Brazilian Telco stocks. Wireless operator dynamics remain very favourable with FCF supported significantly for TIM in the near-term by Oi tower decommissioning, with a potentially broader reset for the industry relative to the Tower cos over the mid-term (part of a broader EM theme perhaps following IHS in Nigeria). New Street has lifted their estimates again after TIM's Q3 results (particularly EBITDAaL). With the IOC tax issue (elimination of tax deductibility) likely a 2025 issue at the earliest they see the stock continuing to run into 2024. TIM is preferred over Vivo at these levels on valuation and with higher wireless exposure.
Edition: 175
- 08 December, 2023