ROADSHOWS: L/S Industrials and Materials Ideas - Jay Van Sciver /Hedgeye   •   London   09 - 11 Jul 25      

Is US Losing Global Tech Leadership to Asia?

Entext

Thu 19 Nov 2020 - 15:00

Summary

Sean Maher’s talk was focused upon the growing dominance of Asian tech companies and the failure of the US market to compete. He began by discussing various companies’ attitude towards e-commerce and how the automation of consumption is becoming more prominent with growing technological capability. While discussing new technological theories and developments such as biological software and embedded intelligence, Sean illustrated the power that Asian companies are now experiencing in the global market. Sean also predicted that China would be the first nation to move towards a sovereign digital currency. Similarly, Sean noted that our consumption is moving more into the digital realm in areas such as gaming and simulations.\n\nThe importance of IP is touched upon and how this enables Asian tech companies to evolve into key players in upcoming technologies. Sean used an example of vision sensors manufactured by Sony that were initially developed for gaming and cameras but can now be used for cars, robotics, and infrastructure all due to their IP. Additionally, component manufacturing is now firmly based in Asia, forcing all major global tech players to buy from them. The only steps in the manufacturing process where Asia lacks are capacity to produce are semiconductors and software, which remain US dominated. Developments like new games consoles and the rollout of 5G are aiding these Asian companies significantly as China is replacing US suppliers with Asian ones. Sean believes China’s forward-thinking attitude towards technology and their willingness to invest in long-term technological R&D and infrastructure, has and is continuing to pay off.\n\nSean then moves onto the technicalities of driverless cars. The technology required for this is emerging from Japanese and Korean companies and with this technology more computing will be required for car production which will surely be provided by the Asian market. Additionally, the raw materials needed for Lithium ion batteries are produced almost exclusively from Asia, making it even harder for US companies to compete. He discussed the potential development of solid-state batteries which would not only allow for power grid storage but also make electronic cars more practical. Sean then touched upon automation, which is going to become widespread in all areas of the economy: yet another area where Asia dominates the IP.\n\nThe prominence of Asian companies in gaming and how they continue to dominate that sector, was then considered. The Asian business models are also becoming more efficient and innovative. Sean then focused on the drug market and the possibility that Asian companies have the tools in place to break through in mass production, reducing the prices of drug manufacturing. Regarding cryptocurrencies, he argues that soon they will be regulated out of existence in favour of government controlled virtual currencies. Sean concludes that China will move to a central, virtual currency which will enable the government to regulate the economy more efficiently through receiving real-time data on consumer spending and saving.

Topics

Key growth cycles from 5G to AR/VR simulation and auto electrification Asia centric - Open RAN being pioneered by Jio/Rakuten.

Post COVID ‘Humans are the Weakest Link’ - services/logistics automation Asia dominated.

China tech giants now pivoting from consumer to enterprise software, focused on industrial supply chain

PBoC trialling direct household transfers of digital RMB.

US retains key foundational IP in chip design software and semi equipment, but their lead is eroding from AI to chip fabrication.

Historic valuation differentials vs. US imply greater upside in Asian tech hardware, particularly Japan and Korea as earnings momentum accelerates.