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Deepening U.S. Recession Buffeted by Rising Cross-Correlations

QI Research

Tue 21 Apr 2026 - 10:00 EDT / 15:00 BST / 16:00 CEST

Topics

• Excluding Recession Proof Education and Healthcare, QI’s Private Core Confirms Payrolls Peaked in April 2024 and the Labour Market Recession Has Deepened.

• The Oil Shock Is Depleting Purchasing Power, While Truflation’s Core Remains Below Headline and PCE Core Is Increasingly Distorted.

• The Fed’s Policy Error Is Being Amplified by Private Credit Fallout and Nonbank Spillovers Into Banks and Insurers.

• A Deeper US Recession Cannot Be Ruled Out as Policy Mistakes, Bankruptcies, Fiscal Blunders and Political Pressure on the Fed Feed Back Into the Downturn.