Summary

Sarah Fowler began by addressing how the **Economic recovery** from the universal H1 2020 contraction is going to be extremely uneven by region and sector: While China's GDP has already regained its pre pandemic level, the US saw a more uneven recovery with GDP just under 3% lower than Q3 2019. In Europe countries now stand 4-5% lower than Q3 2019. While the UK was an outlier, 10% down YoY. With renewed COVID restrictions, however, the US and Europe could be heading back into recession. In terms of fiscal policy, governments may have to cut spending or raise taxes to reassure debt markets, stymieing green economy initiatives and workforce enlargement schemes, while many developing countries could be close to debt distress, or default. **Oil:** Difficult to see prices going much above $60, per barrel, with spare capacity remaining high. OPEC does, however, have enough firepower to keep price above $40 per barrel, despite Libyan and Iranian export aspirations. Demand will recover unevenly, with Asian demand stronger than that of the West, and the demand for jet fuel foundering. Megah Kumar then addressed the issue of **Global Development** suggesting that the prospects for the attainment of UN sustainable development goals have grown worse. The World Bank estimate: 85 to 115 million new people will be pushed into extreme poverty by 2021, erasing 3 years of global progress. School closures have created permanent educational gaps. Dropout rates will rise as children seek wage work to support family incomes. Women are overrepresented in sectors that have been disproportionately affected by COVID-19, losing jobs at 1.8x the rate of men. **Tech:** Phishing attacks, have increased by over 3000% since the pandemic began, with the risk emphasized by data stolen from the service of the European drugs regulator concerning Pfizer BioEnTech vaccine. Cyberspace is also becoming an increasingly important area for geopolitical rivalry. State sponsored espionage, manifesting itself in pandemic related cyber-attacks having been prominent in 2020. The U S administration is strategically tackling China's high-tech ambitions, targeting semiconductor supply chains, resolving Beijing to make itself independent of American suppliers for advanced components. However, rapid changes in the digital economy have also meant greater regulatory and legislative scrutiny. From 2021 onwards, Oxford Analytica see this as one of the important areas that investors should be watching out for. North America Analyst Will Arthur then spoke on **US Politics,** noting Joe Biden's tone and policy reversal in assembling an administration of Washington insiders and less aggressive approach to China and Iran. Biden is also looking to re-engage with international institutions with the intention of re-building international trust and framing Washington as resuming its global leadership role. **Domestically**, Biden's legislative power depends on overturning GOP Senate control in the runoff elections in Georgia. If successful, Biden will look to make wide-reaching reforms. If unsuccessful Biden will have to use executive orders, susceptible to lawsuits. There are Bipartisan opportunities for legislation in 2021, however, including a national infrastructure development package, further fiscal stimulus for the COVID-19 hit economy and green energy schemes. Biden will also have to balance the views of his moderate and progressive colleagues who could endanger the Democrats thinned and fragile majority in the House. Senior Asia-Pacific Analyst Benjamin Charlton addressed **China** and its declared victory in abolishing poverty earlier this month. There's been a dramatic progress in improving life for the very worst-off people in China, even with GDP growth slowing. Spring 2021 will bring the National People's Congress and with it the new five and fifteen-year plans. The Sixth Plenum of the Party Central Committee is also in the autumn which addresses big picture questions of national and international direction.

Topics