Summary

Chris began by highlighting the big drivers against which he uses to assess risk and decision making. Climate change which in the arctic is melting the ice and opening up northern shipping routes thereby cutting shipping times and fuel costs. For example, South Korea to Rotterdam cut by three weeks and $350,000 in fuel. Russia are exerting rights in the area. Population and demographic change will see 11 billion people by 2050 with serious demographic imbalances such as China aging fast but Africa youth explosion leading to migration pressures for Europe. Energy transition - from oil to gas and renewables. Chris is not writing oil off just yet however, as it is embedded so deeply into the global economy. The drive for Urbanisation will have to be balanced with environmentalism. Chris is forecasting pandemics to occur every 10 to 15 years because of Urbanisation leading to denser populated cities and other interactions with nature. Disruptive technology in the form of 3D printing, Quantum computing and nuclear fusion will have profound effects. Premium for robust Data given the battle for truth. Chris went on to highlight various strategic trends in this connected but contested world. Onshoring. Automation in advanced societies as the workforce ages and migration will be mostly of the unskilled type. Technology arms race where cybersecurity will see largest investments given that no digital code will be safe in the quantum computing age. Chris envisages a Balkanisation of the internet where governments have their own discrete networks. Within 10 years everything and everyone one will be detectable. HE believes were are firmly back in the age of empires. China is reverting to 15th century imperial type - a trade and tribute hub backed by military power where they issue debt and supply technology to create dependency. Russia are reasserting themselves in the near abroad. Turkey are Ottomising some foreign policy. US has an empire at sea. Globalisation in a connected and contested world has become a two block world – Eurasian authoritarian states China Russian Iran Turkey opposed by a maritime democratic block – US, parts of Europe , Australia, India, Japan Singapore. Russia and China do not like the current rules which were made when they were weak and America strong. It is now a case of new rules or no rules. China has stated that any financial intervention would be seen as warfare. The battle grounds of the future will be technology, electromagnetic spectrum, the polar regions, productive and arable land, space and the sea. The situation for Taiwan is extremely dangerous this year if the Americas show any weakness. A Biden presidency means continuity as many things that are in train are difficult to stop. Especially in foreign policy where Biden vies Russia as an opponent and China as a strategic threat. Chris does not think Trump will make a comeback but he will be a kingmaker. Chris gave two extreme examples for Chine. One with low GDP growth leading to internal tension, reduced resilience and ultimately a failed state. The other scenario was of high GDP growth leading to an emergent superpower, cosmopolitan youth and a vibrant democracy!

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