Summary

Hani’s call focused on the Middle East, taking a closer look at specific markets throughout the region and relationships with the US.

Hani began by looking at the differences between the Trump and Biden Administration’s approach to the Middle East. The difference between rhetoric and policies was noted. Policy-wise the differences are limited, but Biden’s rhetoric on countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia is far stronger. The main policy difference is on Iran, where it is believed an agreement will be reached as Biden’s goal to re-enter the JCPOA without an intense squeeze on Iran. Biden’s advisors believe a narrow deal would be wise and Iran, having received US sanctions and COVID which have devastated the Iranian economy, will be looking for a deal. Incentives in Iran were also discussed, with how the elites view the domestic population and natural disasters and possible protests with an upcoming presidential election. There could be spoiler events that delay or even derail the movement of talks between Iran and the US, but with a fairly high degree of confidence, Hani believes an agreement will be reached.

Moving on to Saudi Arabia, the rhetoric in the US will be that Biden will not want to be seen as cozying up to Mohammed bin Salman, particularly following the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi. In terms of policy, little has changed. A downtrend in US/Saudi ties is predicted however mutual areas of cooperation and coordination will maintain the relationship. The UAE has been perceived as a unit with Saudi Arabia since the Qatar blockade in 2017. This was an occurrence under Trump however this was temporary. The UAE has its own energy and geopolitical interests and a goal to become a bigger player on a regional level. Where UAE and Saudi Arabia differ is on their perceived regional threats; UAE fears the rise of Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood whereas Saudi Arabia view Iran as their primary threat. UAEs peace deal with Israel should see a positivity in economic and technology activity but also exposes the country to risk by playing an activist role. Hani adds that he does not believe there will be change in US policy towards Israel, irrespective of who forms a government between the pro and anti-Netanyahu parties.

Onto Egypt, Hani discussed the relationships with Ethiopia and Sudan. Egypt’s current major security threat comes from Ethiopia, with the likelihood of a confrontation growing. Not reaching an understanding over the GERD represents the biggest threat to Sisi and his government as well as the declaration of principles signed with Ethiopia and Sudan which offered no protection towards Egypt. If Egypt is unable to agree Nile politics with Ethiopia, the country could be in a worrying position – growing weak and isolated by the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Sabotaging infrastructure in Ethiopia could force negotiations and could rally flag sentiment inside Egypt.

Lastly, Lebanon demonstrates the power of regional geopolitics in the Middle East. The collapse of government and Beirut Port explosion should have been enough for the bickering parties to arrange to go to the IMF, however due to the corruption and greed, and the role of geopolitics, nothing has changed. As long as the Iranians and the Americans have leverage over how things are going to play out on the nuclear front, then very little can happen in Lebanon.

Topics