Summary

Caroline predicts new industrial investors will account for 16% of 5G capex by 2026 driven by its support of enterprise and b2b use cases in both Direct Mobile and Enterprise Mobile. Poor service alignment from mobile network suppliers has resulted in a lack of confidence for using cellular for critical application in enterprises. This must be addressed as it will be critical to 5G ROI as Caroline does not see much growth in consumer use cases, unlike enterprise use cases. Mobile operators will need partners to address enterprise profitability properly, therefore new investment will be crucial. Caroline forecasts the level of co-investment and wholesaling in 2025 will boost total investment into 5G networks and IT by 28%, the result of which, will almost quadruple the number of 5G use cases that will be actively supported by that date, and will deliver improved profits and improved ROI for MNOs as well as for new entrants.

Alex discussed the decline of pay TV subs in the US (he has different figures for Europe) and the growth in streaming, stating if Pay TV losses continue at the current pace, 2032-2033 is the when the final account is closed, however, he does not believe this will happen and expects the rate of decline to slow, conversely broadband household penetration will be to nearly 100% by 2033. Pay TV viewing time is transferring across to long form free video, social media and gaming video sites and will continue to do so as will revenue growth, although he predicted this to slow by 2025 due to saturation. Live sports OTT security revenue to prevent piracy will increase over time but does not sit with public companies, and global live sports viewing will remain steady to the year 2026.

Peter discussed the energy markets clear valuation on clean energy. Peter forecasted 936 million of a total 1.6 billion cars in 2040 will be electric vehicles (well ahead of consensus), based on the acceleration in the rate of electric sales in the 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th quarter of 2020. Hydrogen is another sub-market which will emerge and should be low enough to compete with natural gas by 2024. Peter detailed the coverage of Rethink Energy, and its emphasis on both sustainable and non-sustainable energy, highlighting the investment opportunities and the potential for a new Tesla, in every layer of clean energy. Perovskite is a technology that will soon supersede silicon in solar, predicting it will be able to deliver the same power outputs at 20% of the cost. Peter also forecasts the Levelized Cost of Electricity from solar which is currently around $36 per megawatt hour in 2020, will reduce to just over $11 by 2050 and discussed its implications for renewables going from strength to strength.

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