ROADSHOWS: L/S Industrials and Materials Ideas - Jay Van Sciver /Hedgeye   •   London   09 - 11 Jul 25      

"Peak Growth" does not mean "Peak Markets"

Deep Macro

Thu 24 Jun 2021 - 15:00

Summary

Jeff described how their macro models show there is a long way to go with this recovery, with a lot of global entrepreneurial activity. He stated that you can expect that tech story to move to the next level. 

In terms of trades, Jeff believes investors should have a Relative Value practical portfolio right now. He does not expect much movement in the dollar. Furthermore, Jeff believes inflation is cooling, particularly on the commodity side, such as lumber.  

The website uses a solely data-driven approach and processes millions of data sets into usable, actionable data. Examples of this actionable data include pollutant data from NASA satellites used to determine industrial production levels; the number of job listings to determine forecasted payroll numbers; time taken to fulfil job listings to determine the status of the labour market; determining the movement through truck stops via cell phone location data to forecast economic activity; REIT prices via mobile data, labour market data, airport traffic, hotel listings; mobility data of companies, especially in the US, and what this means for the future of the company.

DeepMacro publishes weekly on China, generating charts such as growth factors, inflation factors, real estate numbers, capital flows by taking big data sets as well as official data sets. DeepMacro also publishes weekly on the FED, tracking FED actions and their effects on the US market.

Topics

US (and most other countries) have already hit "peak growth"

Following China perfectly on cue

Most "Big Data" sources show continued firmness, even if peak growth rates have passed

The growth cycle remains favourable to risk assets

inflation, less so