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No Boom, No Bust, Slowing Inflation, Rising Interest Rates and Range-Bound S&P500

Benderly Economic Insights

Wed 25 May 2022 - 15:00 BST

Topics

Economic growth/employment/wage interactions buffer economy from recession

An unprecedented safety net for growth - $3-4 trillion of extra or excess deposits

Inflation still mostly driven by pandemic idiosyncrasies, commodities and supply-chain disruptions

Commodity-based inflation boosts S&P500 sales, earnings and margins

Slower economic growth but no recession in 2022

Recession could occur in 2023 or 2024, but a recession is not inevitable

Slowing inflation

Very strong S&P500 sales and earnings, margins will stay high, operating EPS to $275-$300

Interest rates too low unless inflation slows back to 2%