EVENTS:   East Asia: Will consumption ever rise? Will exchange rates ever appreciate? - Paul Cavey/East Asia Econ - 23 Sep 25     ROADSHOWS: Global ESG and Impact-Investment Trends with Contrarian Trades in the Energy Transition Space - François Boutin-Dufresne & Félix-A. Boudreault /Sustainable Market Strategies   •   New York • 20 - 24 Oct London   22 - 24 Sep 25       US Healthcare & Merger Arbitrage Catalysts - Tommy Barletta /Aldis Institutional Services   •   London   22 - 23 Sep 25       East Asia Macro Outlook: China, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea - Paul Cavey /East Asia Econ   •   London   23 - 24 Sep 25       L/S Defense Europe’s Military Spending U.S. Strategy and Geopolitical Risks - Col. Jeffrey McCausland /Hedgeye   •   London   24 - 25 Sep 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   25 - 26 Sep 25      

No Boom, No Bust, Slowing Inflation, Rising Interest Rates and Range-Bound S&P500

Benderly Economic Insights

Wed 25 May 2022 - 15:00 BST

Topics

Economic growth/employment/wage interactions buffer economy from recession

An unprecedented safety net for growth - $3-4 trillion of extra or excess deposits

Inflation still mostly driven by pandemic idiosyncrasies, commodities and supply-chain disruptions

Commodity-based inflation boosts S&P500 sales, earnings and margins

Slower economic growth but no recession in 2022

Recession could occur in 2023 or 2024, but a recession is not inevitable

Slowing inflation

Very strong S&P500 sales and earnings, margins will stay high, operating EPS to $275-$300

Interest rates too low unless inflation slows back to 2%