Tue 18 Oct 2022 - 15:00 BST / 10:00 EST

Inflation is structurally higher because of demography. The Phillips curve has been resurrected because of China’s structural inflection

What matters now is whether inflation will persist and whether the economy will go into a soft or hard landing

Two dynamics unique to the pandemic are creating a divorce between labour markets and the rest of the economy. That makes inflation persistence and a hard landing increasingly likely.