EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

China - The Bigger Short

Andrew Hunt Economics

Wed 26 Oct 2022 - 15:00 BST

Topics

  • China's economy is well known to be one that is debt reliant, but it has recently suffered four potentially fatal shocks:
    • A "Death Cross" between the rate of growth of GDP versus interest expenses.
    • Debtor income discontinuities caused by zero COVID policies.
    • Rising interest costs and rollover difficulties vis-à-vis the banks' $3 trillion of foreign currency liabilities.
    • The impact of a busted Ponzi Scheme within the property developers that may cost China's banks the equivalent of 40% of GDP in loan losses.