Greenmantle
Thu 29 Jun 2023 - 16:00 BST
· Niall Ferguson discusses the global economy in the context of "Cold War II" and the concept of a polycrisis.
· He criticizes doom-mongering and conspiracy theories, emphasizing the resilience of globalization and the need for historical context in decision-making.
· Ferguson mentions that recent disasters, including the pandemic, have not significantly disrupted globalization.
· He discusses Jay Powell and compares the current Federal Reserve's policies to the Burns Fed, suggesting a potential weakening of the US dollar.
· The transcript also addresses the state of China's economy, highlighting challenges in the post-COVID recovery, such as scarred consumers, issues in the real estate sector, uncertainty around big tech companies, high youth unemployment, and fiscal concerns.
· Ferguson concludes with a mention of the IMF's analysis of China's government balance and debt.
Global Auto Trade in the Age of EV's - exploring how companies’ drive for efficiencies is interacting with an intensification of geopolitical conflict
Can Germany Adjust? The happy days since the mid-2000s - when Germans exuded self-confidence, believing they had figured out how economics and politics work - are over
US Update : Re-election After Recession - most presidential incumbents do not survive re-election after overseeing a recession in the final two years of their term
Russia - Ukraine Update - The apparent destruction of the Kakhovka Dam by Russian forces smacks of desperation. However, we do not think Ukraine’s counteroffensive will be sufficient to end the war
