Summary

Jawad shared 3 big ideas - first, despite all the macro uncertainty we are in a secular bull market and these markets usually last around 15 years and this one started in 2013. During such periods pullbacks are narrower and shallower. Second, each decade has a zeitgeist which is a trend that turns in to a mania - it was gold in 1970s, Japan in 1980s, Internet in 1990s, China’s entry in the WTO in 2000s, Software in 2010s. In 2022 that zeitgeist unravelled mainly in Silicon Valley, and Jawad believes Climate is the zeitgeist for this decade with the race to zero emissions being the catchphrase. Here we must focus on China and EVs. Thirdly, on the US economy it’s much more robust than consensus believes in the short-term with sensitivity to interest rates being at historical low and there being secular tightness in the labour market. There is no credit crunch on the horizon.

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