Summary

Diana Choyleva, from Enodo Economics, shared insights into her career and expertise during a call, focusing on her deep understanding of China’s economy. She began by reflecting on her childhood under communism, which sparked her desire to become a detective, a role she compares to being an economist due to the need to piece together various bits of information to form a coherent analysis. Her early predictions, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the outperformance of the U.S. equity market relative to China in 2011, established her credibility. Choyleva's extensive experience with China, spanning nearly 25 years, is rooted in both her upbringing and professional training. Choyleva highlighted her understanding of the communist system, combined with market economics, as critical to her successful forecasting. Her decision to focus on China stemmed from its misunderstood yet crucial role in global economics. She discussed her move from Lombard Street Research to establish Enodo Economics, driven by the belief that specialized research on China would yield better insights than broader approaches. One of her significant insights was the prediction of the "Great Decoupling," the bifurcation of the global economy into U.S. and Chinese spheres of influence, driven by trade, technology, and geopolitical tensions. This decoupling, she argues, is now a fundamental force in global economics. Choyleva also discussed Xi Jinping's strategic vision for China, emphasizing national security over economic development and seeking self-sufficiency. She noted that Xi's approach is misunderstood in the West, where it is often seen as a slide toward a command economy. However, Choyleva argues that Xi's strategy involves a more market-driven economy with continued marketization and digitalization efforts, despite the increased state control. She also touched on the challenges in China’s property market, suggesting that the sector has passed its worst phase and is at a turning point.

Topics