Wed 08 Oct 2025 - 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT / 16:00 CET

The Trump Administration is an adverse supply shock for the US economy. Growth not only will growth slow, but it must slow.

Hard landing Vs Soft landing is critical on a 6 month view. Soft landing will see modest Fed easing and equities muddle through with AI upside. Hard landing the Fed will cut by at least 3% and equities fall by at least 30%.

AI may change the world. But that’s not the key investment question. The key question is: how profitable with the provision of AI services be? Markets are too optimistic.