EVENTS:   Hidden Gems & Hidden Risks: Where are we in the Economic and Market Cycle? & What are the Risks? - Chris Watling/Longview Economics - 22 Sep 26   Rubin, Custom ASICs, and CPO Timing (JNK Research Supply Chain Signals into 2027) - Martin Jacobs/JNK Research - 24 Sep 26     ROADSHOWS: Revelare Ideas Lunch: Buyside Perspectives across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •     29 - 30 Sep 26       Market Insights on Consumer / Retail Sector and Stocks - Mark Friedman & Marni Shapiro /The Retail Tracker   •   London   29 - 30 Sep 26       China Macro & U.S.-China Policy - Leland Miller /China Beige Book   •     01 - 02 Oct 26      
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The Cut

Fortnightly publication highlighting latest insights from IRF providers

Company Research

Geography

Europe

Consumer Discretionary

Report by the IDEA!

ALE is evolving from a pure marketplace into a broader commerce-enablement platform, which could deepen seller dependency and create new high-margin revenue streams beyond take rates. Opening logistics, payments and advertising tools for off-platform use should expand ALE’s addressable opportunity, while greater verticalisation could improve conversion in high-intent categories and strengthen its position against specialist competitors. The new seller-protection programme and App Store should further raise switching costs, while Allegro XL addresses a structural gap in bulky-goods ecommerce and could unlock incremental GMV while reinforcing the Smart ecosystem. Combined with international expansion and AI-driven efficiency, The IDEA! believes the strategy should support a more diversified, higher-quality earnings profile and reinforces their positive stance.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Healthcare

Report by AlphaValue

Chronic strength outweighs acute pain - the market is focusing too heavily on Kerecis and overlooking the resilience of the core franchise. Chronic Care, which represents ~75% of sales, continues to deliver ~7% organic growth, supported by high switching costs and leading market share, while Interventional Urology has also grown at a HSD pace. Kerecis remains the main problem, with outpatient activity hit by the new Medicare reimbursement regime, but inpatient growth remains healthy and management is now targeting recovery by 2Q27. Consensus has essentially given up on margin recovery, but AlphaValue thinks that is too pessimistic and expects gradual improvement as FX and plant ramp-up costs roll off. The shares are trading at their lowest valuation in more than a decade and offer a 5.3% dividend yield, the highest in the sector. TP DKK644 (55% upside).

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

ACS (ACS SM) Spain

Industrials

Report by AIR Capital

ACS is AIR’s top European infrastructure-building pick, supported by strong earnings momentum, a rapidly growing order book and significant hidden value. H1 sales rose 8.5% Y/Y and EBITDA 12.8%, while new orders increased 15.3% to €36.5bn and the backlog reached €105.8bn, with AI/Tech the largest source of new business. The balance sheet has also strengthened materially, moving from €2.2bn net debt a year ago to €1bn net cash, while 2026 net profit guidance implies ~35% growth. The key valuation argument is that ACS’s 80% stake in Hochtief is worth ~€26.5bn, effectively leaving the rest of the group valued at only ~€1.5bn. AIR expects data centres to drive near-term growth, followed by energy infrastructure and longer-term nuclear opportunities. TP €140 (50% upside).

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Technology

Report by Rosenblatt Securities

A powerhouse AI optical franchise trading at a telco multiple - optical revenue grew 20% Y/Y in Q2, while AI & Cloud revenue more than doubled and orders reached €2.8bn, with roughly half expected to convert within 12 months. Nokia has already won meaningful share in scale-across (the hardest AI interconnect layer to displace once designed in), while scale-out and eventually scale-up provide further growth legs. Capacity is also being expanded materially across US Indium Phosphide laser, test and packaging facilities. With Optical Networks now ~20% of group revenue and Nokia also increasingly selling Ethernet switches and routers into intra-data-centre applications, Rosenblatt’s SOTP analysis (which implies ~50% upside) values one-third of Nokia as AI infrastructure and two-thirds as telco. They see that as conservative because this reflects the current mix, while AI infrastructure should become a much larger share of the business over time.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

North America

The high price of high volatility

Report by Kailash Capital Research

Investors are paying near dot-com-era prices for high volatility stocks despite fundamentals that remain exceptionally weak. These companies trade at 5.2x sales vs. 3.1x for low-volatility stocks, while the high volatility cohort averages just a 31st-percentile ranking on KCR’s Aggregate Score - a level seen in only 24 of 449 months since 1989. Consensus long-term EPS growth expectations are now 54%, in the 99th percentile and above March 2000, even though current sales growth is only around the cohort’s historical median. Sentiment is also stretched, with short interest at a 23-year low. Strip out the few large winners and the typical high volatility company has a -371% net margin, negative FCF yield and dilutes shareholders by ~6% annually. Low volatility offers the far better valuation / fundamental trade-off. Click here to access the full report, including a list of KCR’s Top & Bottom Ranked Stocks.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Words matter

Report by Trivariate Research

Trivariate analysed earnings-call language from January 2011 onwards across the 1,000 largest US equities by m/cap to identify which communication patterns contain investable information. Management has become increasingly “flowery”, but mainly because numerical references have fallen sharply rather than adjective use rising. The strongest signal is that “numbers speak louder than words”: companies with high adjective-to-number ratios subsequently tend to underperform, with the effect particularly strong in Industrials and Materials and driven mainly by the outperformance of low-ratio companies. Forward-looking and positive Q&A commentary can also be constructive. Quantitatively derived stock ideas include Boeing, Corning, Parker-Hannifin, Starbucks and Cummins on the long side, while IBM, Valero, Constellation Energy, HCA and Grainger appear among the shorts.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Consumer Discretionary

Report by Corto Capital Advisors

HNI’s headline growth and EPS guidance are almost entirely a function of the Steelcase acquisition and a series of one-time items, including a tariff refund accrual and a lower non-GAAP EPS base, rather than an inflection in demand. Meanwhile, the order and backlog disclosures that management uses as evidence of inflecting demand are too inconsistent to independently verify. As a result, Corto believes that the company’s full-year revenue outlook - which calls for significant inflection and acceleration in H2, with little fundamental support - will be difficult to achieve. With the shares rallying by 60%+ since the company’s May lows (which came on the tail end of the company’s weak start to the year), Corto sees meaningful downside risk to shares, particularly if Q3 results fail to show any acceleration in revenue growth.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Consumer Staples

Report by Quo Vadis Capital

John Zolidis argues SFM is still misunderstood by the market, which continues to treat it like a conventional grocer. Instead, he sees the company as a high-ROIC compounder, with its differentiated assortment and focus on health-conscious consumers supporting stronger structural margins, better inventory turns and higher FCF than typical food retailers, while that customer base should also grow faster than the broader population. At just 12 P/E and 7x EV/EBITDA, the shares are trading at discounts to historical averages and cheap multiples on an absolute basis. In a return matrix John estimates one-year upside potential of 50% with a 10x EV/ EBITDA multiple vs. 15% downside using a 6x multiple. He would take advantage of recent weakness to add to or establish new positions in SFM.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Tokenised Equities: Liquidity is arriving before regulation

Financials

Report by The Bridge

The failure of the CLARITY Act to advance leaves the regulatory discount on tokenised equities unresolved, but the bigger signal is that digital stock settlement is already developing meaningful liquidity outside traditional market hours. Tokenised versions of listed equities traded $7.9bn last month, including $1.01bn over Labor Day weekend while traditional exchanges were closed, with digital shares still trading at discounts to their conventional counterparts. Nasdaq’s $100m investment in Kraken’s parent to build stock-settlement infrastructure reinforces the idea that incumbents are preparing for a more digital market structure. The Bridge sees the longer-term risk in 24/7 settlement and tokenised derivatives eroding pricing power across exchanges, brokers and listed-derivatives platforms.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Healthcare

Report by Foveal Research

The Phase III HORIZON miss for Novartis / Ionis’s pelacarsen has created a much tougher setup for competitor AMGN, but the key question is how much of that failure should now be reflected in AMGN’s LP(a) candidate (olpasiran) ahead of its Phase III OCEAN(a) trial. The downside may now be relatively limited given how aggressively the market has written off the class, while the upside could be substantial if the full HORIZON dataset supports only a limited read-through and investors have over-discounted olpasiran’s chances. Foveal's latest work focuses on what the full dataset could mean for that AMGN risk-reward, as well as whether there is any residual value to salvage for NOVN / IONS.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Healthcare

Report by Paragon Intel

Paragon views new CEO Jason Weidman as the right leader to fix the underperforming Interventional business and rebuild margins. Their analysis includes interviews with former senior Medtronic executives who worked with Weidman for more than 84 years combined, with feedback overwhelmingly positive. He is described as analytical and commercially fluent, prioritising profitability over sales growth, making decisions from financial models and developing managers before delegating to them. The main weaknesses are that he can become overly focused on the newest asset in a portfolio at the expense of established products, may be slow to replace underperforming leaders and has limited deal experience beyond assessing targets brought to him by others.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Healthcare

Report by BWS Financial

Hamed Khorsand views TWST as a growth-trap short, arguing the market is assigning software-like economics to what remains a capital-intensive life-sciences manufacturing business. The stock trades at ~17x 2026 revenue, well above profitable peers such as Agilent and Danaher, despite persistent cash burn and gross margins that Hamed believes are approaching a ceiling around the low-50s. Competitive pressure is also intensifying as integrated incumbents bundle NGS probes with broader reagent and library-prep offerings. He also sees the August share-price surge on Anthropic’s protein-design work as overdone, noting TWST was an independent evaluator rather than a strategic or commercial partner. Insider selling accelerated into the rally, while the recent equity raise highlights ongoing funding needs. 12-month TP $45 (65% downside).

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

AI Security: Green shoots are sprouting!

Technology

Report by Marker Advisors

Marker Advisors’ channel work suggests the best is yet to come for AI security, with pipelines building faster than current sell-through. Partners expect incremental progress in Q3, but a more meaningful inflection in Q4 followed by acceleration through 2027 as new budgets come through. Customer interest in securing AI and AI agents is already substantial, with agent discovery the immediate priority. The earliest beneficiaries should be vendors with the greatest reach and lowest deployment friction, particularly CrowdStrike, Okta and Palo Alto. SOC automation is also emerging as a key competitive battleground, with PANW, CRWD and SentinelOne among the early leaders, while data sovereignty in Europe and greater board-level scrutiny are creating additional demand.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Technology

Report by Veritas Investment Research

AVGO’s AI growth remains exceptional, but Veritas argues the financing behind that demand is becoming increasingly important. In addition to their previously identified $29bn backstop of a customer’s lease obligations, Q3 disclosures show the customer may issue AVGO up to $42bn of convertible promissory notes, with proceeds restricted to lease payments. AVGO may also provide residual-value guarantees, leaving it exposed to the customer’s ability to pay and, in a default, to the resale value of AI racks. Management says the platform could support more than 20GW of compute through 2028, versus ~1GW initially. Veritas’ concern is that the financial support underpinning hardware sales is expanding alongside AI growth, while much of the potential exposure remains in the footnotes.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Japan

Telecoms: The two-tier market widens

Communications

Report by Astris Advisory Japan

Astris expects the strong-two / weak-two divide in Japanese telecoms to persist and likely widen through Q2. KDDI and SoftBank Corp screen best, supported by network-quality-led pricing power and lower reliance on promotional spend to retain subscribers, while 20%+ growth in data centres and Cloud / AI provides an additional offset to core mobile pressure. NTT / Docomo is the key swing factor for the sector, with the gap between Q1 growth and full-year guidance implying a meaningful step-down in profitability as it defends share. Rakuten Mobile is the highest-risk name into Oct as its KDDI roaming footprint is reduced, with the exact post-Sep arrangements still being finalised and network quality the key catalyst investors should track. Given historically low Japanese churn, Astris would not expect a clean read on Rakuten’s post-roaming subscriber trend until the Q3 print in early Nov.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Materials

Report by Yuka Marosek

The market’s view of Sumitomo Chemical is increasingly outdated, with investors still valuing it as a complex, commodity-heavy conglomerate despite a material shift in the business. Much of the apparent revenue weakness reflects deliberate exits from low-margin, capital-intensive activities rather than deteriorating demand, while the Petro Rabigh overhang has been reduced through a lower ownership stake and balance-sheet simplification. Yuka Marosek also thinks investors are misreading the earnings recovery: it is not simply cyclical, but increasingly reflects structural loss elimination and a richer mix of higher-quality businesses. Agro & Life Solutions and ICT & Mobility are expected to contribute 56% of FY3/27 core operating profit, while semiconductor materials benefit from high switching costs and long qualification cycles. Yuka therefore believes the market is applying the wrong multiple to the wrong earnings base.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Asia

Consumer Discretionary

Report by India Independent Insight

Iii’s channel work raises questions over whether Meesho’s improving reported unit economics are as durable as management suggests. Experienced e-commerce operators argue that logistics efficiency, rather than advertising, is the key determinant of marketplace profitability. While management reported another sequential decline in logistics cost per delivered order in 1Q27 despite higher fuel and wage costs, Iii’s channel work suggests defect rates remain above industry benchmarks, potentially offsetting those savings through higher return-handling and refund costs. With roughly two-thirds of GMV-contributing sellers already advertising, further ad growth increasingly depends on pricing and inventory mix, making Meesho Mall important to the next leg of monetisation. Iii sees logistics cost per delivered order as the key test: another decline would support management’s case, while a flat or rising print would strengthen the sceptical channel view.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

AI security & the China factor

Technology

Report by 86Research

86Research sees limited risk of a major near-term slowdown in US AI investment, arguing Washington is unlikely to impose deep unilateral restraint while Chinese labs continue scaling. Any safety regime is therefore likely to involve tighter gates and some pacing but remain relatively soft and reversible. For China tech, negotiations could still trigger periodic shocks through threats of tighter semiconductor, equipment and overseas-compute restrictions. Longer term, however, a slower model cycle could shift value away from repeatedly building frontier models and towards deployment, favouring domestic inference chips and AI applications. It could also reduce the premium attached to leading model developers while giving catch-up players such as Tencent more time to close the gap.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

Rest of World

Consumer Discretionary

Report by Hedgeye

Felix Wang sees an attractive pair trade around two converging risks for MELI: TikTok shifting more investment towards Brazil and SE’s Monee stepping up the fintech battle against Mercado Pago. TikTok’s Brazil push could pressure MELI through price, assortment and younger consumers, while Monee could challenge Mercado Pago just as MELI’s credit business faces potential NIMAL pressure and a less benign credit cycle. By contrast, if TikTok becomes more selective in Southeast Asia, Shopee could benefit from lower subsidy intensity and better margins. Felix is well below Street forecasts for MELI, he sees annual growth potentially halving next year, and estimates 40%+ upside from the pair trade.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26

KAP (KAP SJ) South Africa

Industrials

Report by Chronux Research

KAP remains something of an enigma: difficult to forecast and with new management challenged by old problems. FY26 HEPS rose 88% and EBITDA was up 13% on flat revenue, but much of the improvement came from Safripol, where Middle East disruption temporarily reduced import competition and tightened polymer supply, driving a 109% increase in H2 profit. Those benefits should extend into 1H27, but global oversupply clouds the medium-term outlook and the PET business remains loss-making. PG Bison is performing better as new capacity ramps faster than expected, while Unitrans remains a major challenge, requiring significant catch-up capex and potentially five years to fix. Chronux raises their FY27 HEPS by 11% but cuts FY28 by 7%. They remain cautious on KAP with the emphasis for the next three years on stabilising operations.

Edition 245 - 18 Sep 26