East Asia Econ
Wed 08 Jul 2026 - 10:00 EDT / 15:00 BST / 16:00 CEST
• The surge in semiconductor exports is having a huge impact on both Taiwan and Semiconductor exports are having a huge impact in Taiwan and Korea, but the macro effects differ.
• Korea fits a commodity boom framework, while Taiwan also reflects a productivity boom.
• A Balassa-Samuelson framework is more relevant for Taiwan, pointing to stronger real exchange rates and a higher neutral real interest rate.
• KRW weakness and a flat TWD look misplaced given the scale of tech capex and employment
FX should be moving, or inflation and interest rates will rise.