Summary

Mike introduced Webber Research’s multi-factor, quantitative, alternative fuel vehicle ranking system. This covered 35 different vehicles within 6 categories, ranging from trucks, delivery vans, and small vehicles. The ranking system allows for the comparison of renewable vehicles due to the lack of clear and certain data points within the sector. The rankings considered 13 different factors of technical specs and a subjective factor to account for more qualitative variables.

Rob began by discussing Class 8 trucks, explaining how the requirement for energy-dense fuel had led to a bottleneck within the EV category - especially as range and refuelling are particularly important factors within this vehicle class. As larger vehicles are only 3:1 more efficient than typical combustion, compared to that of 5:1 for small vehicles, BEV loses their substantial advantage within the Class 8 category. Rather it was the Nikola Two, a hydrogen-electric Class 8 truck that topped this category within Webber Research’s rankings. As refuelling infrastructures and networks had not been considered in this model, it was the technology and specifications of the Nikola Two that beat the competition. In addition, Rob highlighted how Nikola’s OPEX and CapEx ratings were favourable due to Nikola’s pricing model of initially paying 40% more than average, but then free refuelling and maintenance for 7 years. In terms of towing capacity, alternative fuel vehicles can in theory tow more due to the difference in regulation between alternative fuel vehicles versus combustion engine vehicles. This was explained as a CNG truck has a 2,000-pound towing advantage, and hence this impacts the rankings quite substantially when looking at towing capacity ratings and range. Striking the right balance for a BEV between power, weight, towing capacity, and battery safety is more difficult than other alternative fuel vehicles.

Mike moved on to discuss the economic comparisons between vehicles’ CapEx cycles as well as how C rates play an important role in determining the economics. For a BEV, which has very rapid acceleration, charge rates ("C rates") are heavily impacted when you start towing, or even atmospheric conditions are unfavourable, resulting in greater stress being placed on the whole battery system. In terms of delivery vans or small vehicles, rather than a towing vehicle, C rates indicated less stress on the battery system. The ranking system allows for the comparison of stress versus efficiency in different vehicle classes and is a telling sign of who has the most well-established technology.

Regarding small vehicles, tax incentives play the largest role in determining which vehicle tops the Webber Research rankings. Rob discussed how the Toyota Mirai topped its class rankings, but only due to fuel incentives as it is a hydrogen-fuel powered car. The most pressing issue in this class is grid and fuel stability – with the expansion of charging and fuelling stations in the future as demand increases. Rob went on to discuss how the pricing of lithium batteries is expected to stay relatively constant in a 10-year forecast, compared to the difference between 2010 and 2020. Rather, tax incentives will be the most important factor in forcing the prices down any further. On the other hand, price increases will be in running costs, with electricity prices expected to rise. Rob drew on California as a case study, where electricity prices have doubled in the last ten years. When analysing, autonomous driving, Mike and his team identified the Chevy Bolt as having the lowest cost per mile over 20 years at 22 cents per mile.

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