Summary

“Geopolitics is back” says Liz Truss. GlobalStrat’s Olivier says it never left, its just people were not looking at it. Four countries are eager to rebuild their empires and they happen to be allies: Russia/China/Iran and Turkey. Of the first, Olivier’s expectation is the war in Ukraine will be of 10-15 years in duration and adopt the Syrian model with mass bombings of civilians. Georgia and Moldova will be next but the NATO grouped Baltic States are safe. Expect more use of sophisticated malware targeting LNG facilities. The unexplained explosion at the largest US LNG facility in Texas this year could be an example. Ultimately, Olivier expects the partition of Ukraine.

China will exploit rare earths and pharmaceuticals to exert influence and gain advantage over the west. Ukraine joining the west’s sphere of influence was to be an opportunity to reduce the overreliance on China on rare earth materials. The direction of travel is clear. Expect a takeover of Taiwan. Iran to sponsor terrorism and Turkey despite, making friends with enemies for tactical reasons, continues to threaten Greece with war. Erdogan will not abandon his goal to restore the Caliphate.

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