Summary

China's export market share had been consistently rising globally until around 2015. China is reducing its imports, particularly in categories such as machinery and electronic equipment, seeking to produce these goods domestically. China's market share gains extend beyond just exports and encompass diverse product categories: electronics, particularly semiconductors and batteries, have seen significant market share increases. Although transhipment occurs to some extent, it isn't the primary driver of China's market share changes.

There's less dramatic supply chain restructuring compared to Japan's historical experience. Where China also differs to 90s Japan is in greater corporate dynamism, especially in emerging industries. Japan is dealing with challenges in terms of export volumes to China. Despite a weaker yen, there is no significant improvement. Japan's optimism should focus more on domestic developments, like economic restructuring.

South Korea seems to be adversely affected by the changing dynamics in the Chinese market, facing a decline in market share and transitioning from a trade surplus to a deficit with China. Taiwan emerges as a winner, maintaining market share in China and gaining it in other product categories. It also fills the gap left by China in the US market, but there's concern about its structural dependence on semiconductors. There are trade deficit concerns in the EU's trade with China, though EU export data doesn't fully support this trend.

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