Summary

David Murrin’s talk was based on his analysis of human collective group behaviour about which he has written several books and spent his career researching. From this research he has been able to predict many of the large shifts in global geopolitics and economics with “frightening accuracy”. In David’s Five Fundamental Stages of Empire, China is in stage two with a well led militarised society and a growing population expanding down it’s resource chains. Emerging Markets are still in phase one of the cycle showing various forms of regionalisation. Surprisingly, the UK has just moved out from stage one through a “civil war” in the form of the Brexit process and is now moving to an expanding state. The UK is the only western state in this position. On the other hand, both the US and EU are both in the final stage of the model “Decline and Legacy”. The power vacuum created by the rise of China in contrast to the fall of the Western Christian systems is likely to give rise to significant conflict over the next decade. China: David laid out China’s Sun Tzu based strategies that have been deployed against the West, culminating in its meteoric rise in recent history. However, China’s ability for subtle growth has now faded and under the leadership of Xi Jinping, has now become far more confrontational. There is likely to be an outright challenge from China to move to a hegemonic position in the next 5-7 years. COVID-19 is the trigger China has used to step out in direct confrontation against the US and the rest of the Western Christian system. Although David does not see the “Main Event” of this confrontation occurring for several years (as China does not yet have a clear advantage), he does forecast increased levels of pressure and confrontation. US: Is set to collapse under pressure from China and the US governing system has failed catastrophically in addressing this issue. Within David’s “Five Fundamental Stages of Empire” he outlines that systems in decline will always show the worst disease profile, which has been evident in the US response to COVID-19. This decline began after 9/11 and has been further accelerated through Obama’s “give away of power” and Trump’s complete failure to deploy the correct strategies to counter this decline. The world is no longer seeing a trade war between the US and China, but a new cold war, with full expectations for military confrontation. UK: In contrast to the US and EU, David’s views on the UK’s global position were far more positive. He sees the Brexit vote as an understanding by the British government of the UK’s place within the shifting global system - as a move to leave a fracturing EU and into a position of increased strength. In this regard, the UK will offer a safe haven for investors in the coming years amid increasing global tensions. The Conservative government has stumbled onto a new form of politics, able to simultaneously create and distribute wealth, which he believes is the ultimate solution for effective governance.

Topics