Summary

Michael Belkin discussed his background in time series analysis and econometrics, highlighting his focus on direction, position, and intensity in a 12-period forward forecast. He highlighted that the economy is entering a slowdown phase due to the central bank's actions and a significant decline in money supply. He recommended going risk-off and favouring defensive sectors like consumer staples, utilities, and personal household goods, while shorting or selling economically sensitive sectors such as banks, retail, construction materials, and autos. He also touched on opportunities in bond markets, including long-term treasuries. In the commodities market, he mentioned a mixed outlook with short positions in soft economically sensitive commodities and a preference for precious metals. Michael also suggested a potential top in the U.S. dollar and recommended playing it through currency futures contracts.

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