Summary

ACG Analytics showcased their political network at the breakfast event with Mick Mulvaney, former Director of the Office for Management and Budget and White House Chief of Staff. Or as David Metzner, Managing Partner of ACG put it, CFO and then COO of America! Mick expects Biden vs Trump in November with a Trump victory likely and immigration driving the vote. He sees Trump as the only person able to derail his ascent to the White House. Trump 2.0 will be better equipped to deal with congress this time. On NATO, Mick sees Trump negotiating with them, and despite the rhetoric, believes there is no chance America will withdraw. Expect defence budgets to go up everywhere. At the same time, it is Micks view that a winding down of the war in Ukraine is more likely than a ramping up given obvious fatigue in Europe and the US. Does not see an appetite to use Russia’s frozen assets. Risks include a misstep from congress on the one-China policy. If Trump wins, expect protectionists to have the upper hand over globalists in Washington. Whoever wins, there will be no tax cuts and higher inflation for longer.

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