Belkin Report
Tue 29 Apr 2025 - 16:00 BST / 11:00 ET
Michael Belkin, Founder of the Belkin Report, focused on navigating and outperforming markets during a prolonged bear phase. Belkin outlined how his proprietary time-series forecasting models indicate a major global equity downturn is underway, with strong downside risk across US, European and emerging markets. He explained how investors can create a “synthetic bull market” through defensive sector positioning and market-neutral strategies. The discussion highlighted clear relative strength in utilities, consumer staples, real estate and precious metals, while technology, financials and cyclicals remain key underperformers. Belkin also discussed macro risks including supply-chain disruptions, tariffs and an AI-driven valuation bubble. The call concluded with tactical insights on gold, currencies, bonds and sector rotation strategies designed to preserve capital and generate alpha in volatile conditions.
Financial markets are tearing down shibboleths. Deeply-held beliefs about investing are crumbling one by one
* The dollar. The dollar has now completely reversed and is back to the 98 level, only slightly below its pre-election level
* AI. The NYFANG index peaked on Jan 6, 2025 at 150 and is now 95, down -37%
* China. US hedge fund and retail investors loved Chinese stocks early this year. But the FXI is now down -18% from its March peak
* Gold. The belief that gold is a bad investment is a shibboleth, what are they thinking?
Belkin's downside targets for stock indexes are significantly lower. Sell and short into brief rallies and get defensive.